Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 1360-1440 tweets in April 2026, with the 1400-1439 range leading at 12.3% implied probability and 1360-1399 close behind at 11%, mirroring his recent monthly averages of around 1,300-1,500 posts as X's outspoken owner and pop culture lightning rod. This tight clustering reflects stable historical patterns—roughly 40-50 daily tweets fueled by real-time commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, politics, and memes—undisturbed by fresh developments in the past week, including no major platform tweaks or personal announcements altering his cadence. Key differentiators include potential volatility from 2026 news cycles, like AI breakthroughs or regulatory battles, which could push toward higher bins (e.g., 1480+ at 9.1%) or compress activity in quieter periods, while low-end outcomes (<1000) languish below 5% absent a prolonged hiatus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1400-1439 12.3%
1360-1399 10.9%
1440-1479 9.1%
1320-1359 8.9%
$4,346,745 交易量
$4,346,745 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
5%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
5%
1240-1279
5%
1280-1319
8%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
11%
1400-1439
12%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
8%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
6%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
1%
1400-1439 12.3%
1360-1399 10.9%
1440-1479 9.1%
1320-1359 8.9%
$4,346,745 交易量
$4,346,745 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
5%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
5%
1240-1279
5%
1280-1319
8%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
11%
1400-1439
12%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
8%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
6%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 1360-1440 tweets in April 2026, with the 1400-1439 range leading at 12.3% implied probability and 1360-1399 close behind at 11%, mirroring his recent monthly averages of around 1,300-1,500 posts as X's outspoken owner and pop culture lightning rod. This tight clustering reflects stable historical patterns—roughly 40-50 daily tweets fueled by real-time commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, politics, and memes—undisturbed by fresh developments in the past week, including no major platform tweaks or personal announcements altering his cadence. Key differentiators include potential volatility from 2026 news cycles, like AI breakthroughs or regulatory battles, which could push toward higher bins (e.g., 1480+ at 9.1%) or compress activity in quieter periods, while low-end outcomes (<1000) languish below 5% absent a prolonged hiatus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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