**Trader consensus heavily favors no additional prison time for Harvey Weinstein at 76% implied probability, driven primarily by the May 15 mistrial in his third New York rape retrial.** A Manhattan jury deadlocked after three days of deliberations on the remaining count involving Jessica Mann, marking the second hung jury on that charge in under a year and prompting prosecutors to weigh a potential fourth trial within 30 days. Weinstein, 74, remains incarcerated at Rikers while serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 convictions (under appeal) and awaiting sentencing on a 2025 New York criminal sexual act conviction. His advanced age, documented health concerns, and the pattern of prosecutorial challenges in securing unanimous verdicts have shaped market positioning, with all other sentence ranges below 10%. Upcoming catalysts include the Manhattan DA’s decision on retrial and any California appeal rulings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
无监禁时间 76.0%
20-30年 9.2%
10-20年 6.4%
少于5年 3.9%
$1,055,321 交易量
$1,055,321 交易量
2025-12-31
无监禁时间
76%
少于5年
4%
5-10年
4%
10-20年
6%
20-30年
9%
30年以上
2%
无监禁时间 76.0%
20-30年 9.2%
10-20年 6.4%
少于5年 3.9%
$1,055,321 交易量
$1,055,321 交易量
2025-12-31
无监禁时间
$368,857 交易量
76%
少于5年
$138,666 交易量
4%
5-10年
$88,127 交易量
4%
10-20年
$167,393 交易量
6%
20-30年
$210,639 交易量
9%
30年以上
$81,639 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors no additional prison time for Harvey Weinstein at 76% implied probability, driven primarily by the May 15 mistrial in his third New York rape retrial.** A Manhattan jury deadlocked after three days of deliberations on the remaining count involving Jessica Mann, marking the second hung jury on that charge in under a year and prompting prosecutors to weigh a potential fourth trial within 30 days. Weinstein, 74, remains incarcerated at Rikers while serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 convictions (under appeal) and awaiting sentencing on a 2025 New York criminal sexual act conviction. His advanced age, documented health concerns, and the pattern of prosecutorial challenges in securing unanimous verdicts have shaped market positioning, with all other sentence ranges below 10%. Upcoming catalysts include the Manhattan DA’s decision on retrial and any California appeal rulings.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
交易量
$1,055,321结束日期
2025-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors no additional prison time for Harvey Weinstein at 76% implied probability, driven primarily by the May 15 mistrial in his third New York rape retrial.** A Manhattan jury deadlocked after three days of deliberations on the remaining count involving Jessica Mann, marking the second hung jury on that charge in under a year and prompting prosecutors to weigh a potential fourth trial within 30 days. Weinstein, 74, remains incarcerated at Rikers while serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 convictions (under appeal) and awaiting sentencing on a 2025 New York criminal sexual act conviction. His advanced age, documented health concerns, and the pattern of prosecutorial challenges in securing unanimous verdicts have shaped market positioning, with all other sentence ranges below 10%. Upcoming catalysts include the Manhattan DA’s decision on retrial and any California appeal rulings.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,055,321结束日期
2025-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors no additional prison time for Harvey Weinstein at 76% implied probability, driven primarily by the May 15 mistrial in his third New York rape retrial.** A Manhattan jury deadlocked after three days of deliberations on the remaining count involving Jessica Mann, marking the second hung jury on that charge in under a year and prompting prosecutors to weigh a potential fourth trial within 30 days. Weinstein, 74, remains incarcerated at Rikers while serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 convictions (under appeal) and awaiting sentencing on a 2025 New York criminal sexual act conviction. His advanced age, documented health concerns, and the pattern of prosecutorial challenges in securing unanimous verdicts have shaped market positioning, with all other sentence ranges below 10%. Upcoming catalysts include the Manhattan DA’s decision on retrial and any California appeal rulings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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