Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Clavicular ascending as Iran's Supreme Leader by March 31, driven by the swift official appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei—son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in late February US-Israeli strikes—as the new leader on March 9, backed by the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guards. This viral market stemmed from absurd social media memes linking the American looksmaxxing influencer Clavicular to a fabricated rumor of Khamenei's fandom, amplified by X buzz and Polymarket virality, but crushed by Clavicular's recent Florida arrest on battery charges and his zero political standing in Iran. With the deadline passed and no clerical pathway for a U.S. outsider, realistic upsets remain nonexistent amid Iran's hardline succession lockdown.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于锁骨组织会在3月31日之前成为伊朗的下一任最高领导人吗？
锁骨组织会在3月31日之前成为伊朗的下一任最高领导人吗？
是
$1,138,669 交易量
$1,138,669 交易量
2026-03-31
是
$1,138,669 交易量
$1,138,669 交易量
2026-03-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Clavicular ascending as Iran's Supreme Leader by March 31, driven by the swift official appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei—son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in late February US-Israeli strikes—as the new leader on March 9, backed by the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guards. This viral market stemmed from absurd social media memes linking the American looksmaxxing influencer Clavicular to a fabricated rumor of Khamenei's fandom, amplified by X buzz and Polymarket virality, but crushed by Clavicular's recent Florida arrest on battery charges and his zero political standing in Iran. With the deadline passed and no clerical pathway for a U.S. outsider, realistic upsets remain nonexistent amid Iran's hardline succession lockdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
交易量
$1,138,669结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Clavicular ascending as Iran's Supreme Leader by March 31, driven by the swift official appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei—son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in late February US-Israeli strikes—as the new leader on March 9, backed by the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guards. This viral market stemmed from absurd social media memes linking the American looksmaxxing influencer Clavicular to a fabricated rumor of Khamenei's fandom, amplified by X buzz and Polymarket virality, but crushed by Clavicular's recent Florida arrest on battery charges and his zero political standing in Iran. With the deadline passed and no clerical pathway for a U.S. outsider, realistic upsets remain nonexistent amid Iran's hardline succession lockdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.
If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,138,669结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 10, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Clavicular ascending as Iran's Supreme Leader by March 31, driven by the swift official appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei—son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in late February US-Israeli strikes—as the new leader on March 9, backed by the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guards. This viral market stemmed from absurd social media memes linking the American looksmaxxing influencer Clavicular to a fabricated rumor of Khamenei's fandom, amplified by X buzz and Polymarket virality, but crushed by Clavicular's recent Florida arrest on battery charges and his zero political standing in Iran. With the deadline passed and no clerical pathway for a U.S. outsider, realistic upsets remain nonexistent amid Iran's hardline succession lockdown.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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