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AI在2026年赢得IMO金牌?

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AI在2026年赢得IMO金牌?

12月 31

12月 31

71% 概率
Polymarket
最新

71% 概率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Google DeepMind's Gemini with Deep Think and OpenAI's experimental systems both achieved official gold medal-standard performance at the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO), solving five of six problems and surpassing the prior year's silver benchmark from AlphaProof and AlphaGeometry 2. This rapid advancement in AI mathematical reasoning—leveraging large language models for natural language proofs without specialized tools—has fueled trader consensus at 71% implied probability for a repeat or better in IMO 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game optimism amid accelerating AI capabilities. Key uncertainties include annually escalating problem difficulty and potential IMO rule changes on AI participation, with the July 2026 event as the resolution catalyst.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
交易量
$3,259
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Google DeepMind's Gemini with Deep Think and OpenAI's experimental systems both achieved official gold medal-standard performance at the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO), solving five of six problems and surpassing the prior year's silver benchmark from AlphaProof and AlphaGeometry 2. This rapid advancement in AI mathematical reasoning—leveraging large language models for natural language proofs without specialized tools—has fueled trader consensus at 71% implied probability for a repeat or better in IMO 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game optimism amid accelerating AI capabilities. Key uncertainties include annually escalating problem difficulty and potential IMO rule changes on AI participation, with the July 2026 event as the resolution catalyst.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
交易量
$3,259
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"AI在2026年赢得IMO金牌?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"人工智能将在2026年获得国际数学奥林匹克金牌吗?",概率为 71%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 71¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 71%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"AI在2026年赢得IMO金牌?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Nov 12, 2025上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"AI在2026年赢得IMO金牌?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"AI在2026年赢得IMO金牌?"的当前领先者是"人工智能将在2026年获得国际数学奥林匹克金牌吗?",概率为 71%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 71%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"AI在2026年赢得IMO金牌?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。