Trader sentiment on Tesla's Q2 2026 vehicle deliveries remains tightly contested, with 375k–400k and 475k+ outcomes nearly tied at 24% and 23.9% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty over demand recovery amid competitive EV pressures from BYD and legacy rivals. Strong April catalysts—China wholesales surging 36% year-over-year to a record 79,478 units (largely Model Y exports), Europe registrations exploding over 100% in key markets, and Australia's 145% sales jump—bolstered higher-end bets, building on Q1's strategic 50,000-unit inventory buildup from 408k production versus 358k deliveries. However, fading U.S. incentives and soft retail trends cap optimism, with weekly China insurance data through mid-May and end-quarter ramps as pivotal swing factors ahead of Tesla's early-July report.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于475,000+ 23.1%
375,000–400,000 21%
42.5万–45万 16%
45万–47.5万 14.0%
$41,747 交易量
$41,747 交易量
少于30万
8%
30万–32.5万
1%
32.5万–35万
12%
35万–37.5万
11%
375,000–400,000
23%
40万–42.5万
17%
42.5万–45万
19%
45万–47.5万
19%
475,000+
23%
475,000+ 23.1%
375,000–400,000 21%
42.5万–45万 16%
45万–47.5万 14.0%
$41,747 交易量
$41,747 交易量
少于30万
8%
30万–32.5万
1%
32.5万–35万
12%
35万–37.5万
11%
375,000–400,000
23%
40万–42.5万
17%
42.5万–45万
19%
45万–47.5万
19%
475,000+
23%
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
市场开放时间： Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Tesla's Q2 2026 vehicle deliveries remains tightly contested, with 375k–400k and 475k+ outcomes nearly tied at 24% and 23.9% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty over demand recovery amid competitive EV pressures from BYD and legacy rivals. Strong April catalysts—China wholesales surging 36% year-over-year to a record 79,478 units (largely Model Y exports), Europe registrations exploding over 100% in key markets, and Australia's 145% sales jump—bolstered higher-end bets, building on Q1's strategic 50,000-unit inventory buildup from 408k production versus 358k deliveries. However, fading U.S. incentives and soft retail trends cap optimism, with weekly China insurance data through mid-May and end-quarter ramps as pivotal swing factors ahead of Tesla's early-July report.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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