Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于375k–400k 31%
400k–425k 21%
350k–375k 15%
450k–475k 10%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<300k
8%
300k–325k
7%
325k–350k
13%
350k–375k
20%
375k–400k
38%
400k–425k
21%
425k–450k
15%
450k–475k
10%
475k+
10%
375k–400k 31%
400k–425k 21%
350k–375k 15%
450k–475k 10%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<300k
$20 交易量
8%
300k–325k
$20 交易量
7%
325k–350k
$24 交易量
13%
350k–375k
$20 交易量
20%
375k–400k
$20 交易量
38%
400k–425k
$20 交易量
21%
425k–450k
$22 交易量
15%
450k–475k
$20 交易量
10%
475k+
$20 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
市场开放时间： Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
交易量
$186结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
交易量
$186结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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