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政治·聯邦化

特朗普會將選舉國有化嗎？

Market icon
政治·聯邦化

特朗普會將選舉國有化嗎？

是

31% 機率
Polymarket

$14,325 交易量

是

31% 機率
Polymarket

$14,325 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting. President Trump's recent executive orders establishing federal voter lists and restricting mail-in ballots in federal elections—signed within the last week—have triggered immediate lawsuits from civil rights groups like Common Cause and the NAACP, alongside bipartisan pushback citing constitutional delegation of election administration to states. Courts have historically blocked similar efforts, emphasizing states' authority under Article I and the 10th Amendment, with even some Republicans like Sen. Rand Paul questioning federal overreach. Ahead of the 2026 midterms, trader consensus reflects a 69.5% implied probability against full nationalization, driven by these legal barriers, lack of congressional support, and state resistance, despite ongoing rhetoric on election integrity.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$14,325
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting. President Trump's recent executive orders establishing federal voter lists and restricting mail-in ballots in federal elections—signed within the last week—have triggered immediate lawsuits from civil rights groups like Common Cause and the NAACP, alongside bipartisan pushback citing constitutional delegation of election administration to states. Courts have historically blocked similar efforts, emphasizing states' authority under Article I and the 10th Amendment, with even some Republicans like Sen. Rand Paul questioning federal overreach. Ahead of the 2026 midterms, trader consensus reflects a 69.5% implied probability against full nationalization, driven by these legal barriers, lack of congressional support, and state resistance, despite ongoing rhetoric on election integrity.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$14,325
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Feb 4, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"特朗普會將選舉國有化嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "特朗普會使選舉國有化嗎？" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "特朗普會將選舉國有化嗎？" has generated $14.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "特朗普會將選舉國有化嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "特朗普會將選舉國有化嗎？" is "特朗普會使選舉國有化嗎？" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "特朗普會將選舉國有化嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.