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政治·美國大選

加文·紐森會否宣佈由…執掌總統大選？

Market icon
政治·美國大選

加文·紐森會否宣佈由…執掌總統大選？

$76,482 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$76,482 交易量

Polymarket

2026年12月31日

$44,748 交易量

15%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California Governor Gavin Newsom, term-limited after January 2027, has not announced a 2028 presidential bid despite rising trader focus on his Democratic frontrunner status. A recent survey of Washington insiders ranks him as the party's best-positioned leader amid post-2024 soul-searching, boosted by his February book tour discussing potential matchups and March SXSW comments conditioning a run on Democrats flipping the House in November 2026 midterms. Family reservations, including his children's opposition, temper expectations, while criticism of his California record on homelessness and costs persists. Traders assess his national anti-Trump profile against primary rivals, with odds hinging on midterm outcomes and any formal declaration before the market deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$76,482
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Oct 27, 2025, 1:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California Governor Gavin Newsom, term-limited after January 2027, has not announced a 2028 presidential bid despite rising trader focus on his Democratic frontrunner status. A recent survey of Washington insiders ranks him as the party's best-positioned leader amid post-2024 soul-searching, boosted by his February book tour discussing potential matchups and March SXSW comments conditioning a run on Democrats flipping the House in November 2026 midterms. Family reservations, including his children's opposition, temper expectations, while criticism of his California record on homelessness and costs persists. Traders assess his national anti-Trump profile against primary rivals, with odds hinging on midterm outcomes and any formal declaration before the market deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$76,482
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Oct 27, 2025, 1:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"加文·紐森會否宣佈由…執掌總統大選？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年12月31日" at 14%, followed by "2025年12月31日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "加文·紐森會否宣佈由…執掌總統大選？" has generated $76.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 27, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "加文·紐森會否宣佈由…執掌總統大選？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "加文·紐森會否宣佈由…執掌總統大選？" is "2026年12月31日" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2025年12月31日" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "加文·紐森會否宣佈由…執掌總統大選？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.