Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability for Elon Musk securing full custody of his one-year-old son Romulus with Ashley St. Clair, reflecting the high legal bar for revoking a mother's primary caregiving role in New York family court, where their dispute originated with her 2025 sole custody petition and paternity filing. Musk's confirmed January 12 public statement vowing to file over St. Clair's pro-transgender apology—implying potential transition risks for the boy—sparked headlines but lacks verified court progress nearly three months later, amid his demanding schedule fathering over a dozen children. While Musk's resources bolster his position, courts rarely grant full custody based on ideological clashes alone; an upset would require substantiated proof of unfitness, like neglect evidence from upcoming hearings.