The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$10,859,381 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
沙烏地阿拉伯
3%
卡達
3%
阿聯酋
3%
巴林
2%
約旦
1%
英國
1%
科威特
1%
土耳其
1%
法國
1%
任何歐盟國家
1%
阿曼
1%
德國
<1%
加拿大
<1%
$10,859,381 交易量
沙烏地阿拉伯
$2,215,519 交易量
3%
卡達
$950,260 交易量
3%
阿聯酋
$2,858,966 交易量
3%
巴林
$393,521 交易量
2%
約旦
$189,690 交易量
1%
英國
$948,392 交易量
1%
科威特
$211,711 交易量
1%
土耳其
$481,803 交易量
1%
法國
$750,377 交易量
1%
任何歐盟國家
$473,319 交易量
1%
阿曼
$132,169 交易量
1%
德國
$912,757 交易量
<1%
加拿大
$340,897 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 2, 2026, 10:51 AM ET
交易量
$10,859,381結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 2, 2026, 10:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$10,859,381結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 2, 2026, 10:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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