The United States and Israel initiated open military conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026, launching widespread airstrikes on nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, leadership targets—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—and defense industries, marking a sharp escalation from prior proxy tensions. As of March 30, combined US-Israeli forces continue striking Iranian military infrastructure, supported by Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar aiding in missile and drone intercepts, while UK bases host US operations. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US assets, and Gulf states, prompting a US 15-point diplomatic proposal via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement—which Tehran rejected. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects confirmed actions by leading actors amid potential ground operations and no ceasefire in sight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$10,839,135 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
沙烏地阿拉伯
4%
阿聯酋
3%
卡達
2%
巴林
2%
科威特
1%
約旦
1%
英國
1%
土耳其
1%
任何歐盟國家
1%
法國
1%
阿曼
1%
德國
<1%
加拿大
<1%
$10,839,135 交易量
沙烏地阿拉伯
$2,208,406 交易量
4%
阿聯酋
$2,852,219 交易量
3%
卡達
$946,291 交易量
2%
巴林
$392,924 交易量
2%
科威特
$211,656 交易量
1%
約旦
$189,690 交易量
1%
英國
$948,392 交易量
1%
土耳其
$481,799 交易量
1%
任何歐盟國家
$473,069 交易量
1%
法國
$750,284 交易量
1%
阿曼
$132,073 交易量
1%
德國
$912,746 交易量
<1%
加拿大
$339,708 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel initiated open military conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026, launching widespread airstrikes on nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, leadership targets—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—and defense industries, marking a sharp escalation from prior proxy tensions. As of March 30, combined US-Israeli forces continue striking Iranian military infrastructure, supported by Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar aiding in missile and drone intercepts, while UK bases host US operations. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US assets, and Gulf states, prompting a US 15-point diplomatic proposal via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement—which Tehran rejected. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects confirmed actions by leading actors amid potential ground operations and no ceasefire in sight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
交易量
$10,839,135結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel initiated open military conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026, launching widespread airstrikes on nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, leadership targets—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—and defense industries, marking a sharp escalation from prior proxy tensions. As of March 30, combined US-Israeli forces continue striking Iranian military infrastructure, supported by Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar aiding in missile and drone intercepts, while UK bases host US operations. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US assets, and Gulf states, prompting a US 15-point diplomatic proposal via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement—which Tehran rejected. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects confirmed actions by leading actors amid potential ground operations and no ceasefire in sight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$10,839,135結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel initiated open military conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026, launching widespread airstrikes on nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, leadership targets—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—and defense industries, marking a sharp escalation from prior proxy tensions. As of March 30, combined US-Israeli forces continue striking Iranian military infrastructure, supported by Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar aiding in missile and drone intercepts, while UK bases host US operations. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US assets, and Gulf states, prompting a US 15-point diplomatic proposal via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement—which Tehran rejected. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects confirmed actions by leading actors amid potential ground operations and no ceasefire in sight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions