Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran now entering a second month, Tehran's missile barrages targeting Israel—including recent hits on Arad—and a direct attack wounding US troops at a Saudi air base have intensified regional tensions as of March 28. Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missile strike on Israel today, signaling proxy escalation. Tehran has issued stark warnings via its Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, declaring US-allied bases and infrastructure in Persian Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait as legitimate targets for retaliation if used against Iran, explicitly sparing nations like Oman, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. Upcoming US oil tanker escorts through the Strait of Hormuz risk provoking further Iranian military action, such as strikes on refineries or ports, before the April 30 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$53,050 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
52%
Ras Tanura
40%
Al Zour Refinery
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
25%
East–West Pipeline
20%
Khurais Field
20%
Safaniya Field
19%
Leviathan Field
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
10%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$53,050 交易量
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,315 交易量
52%
Ras Tanura
$4,317 交易量
40%
Al Zour Refinery
$0 交易量
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$3,165 交易量
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$6,229 交易量
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$1,865 交易量
26%
Ghawar Field
$532 交易量
25%
East–West Pipeline
$4,923 交易量
20%
Khurais Field
$4,354 交易量
20%
Safaniya Field
$1,228 交易量
19%
Leviathan Field
$1,511 交易量
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$587 交易量
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$12,723 交易量
10%
Burj Khalifa
$330 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran now entering a second month, Tehran's missile barrages targeting Israel—including recent hits on Arad—and a direct attack wounding US troops at a Saudi air base have intensified regional tensions as of March 28. Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missile strike on Israel today, signaling proxy escalation. Tehran has issued stark warnings via its Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, declaring US-allied bases and infrastructure in Persian Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait as legitimate targets for retaliation if used against Iran, explicitly sparing nations like Oman, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. Upcoming US oil tanker escorts through the Strait of Hormuz risk provoking further Iranian military action, such as strikes on refineries or ports, before the April 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
市場開放時間： Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$53,050結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran now entering a second month, Tehran's missile barrages targeting Israel—including recent hits on Arad—and a direct attack wounding US troops at a Saudi air base have intensified regional tensions as of March 28. Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missile strike on Israel today, signaling proxy escalation. Tehran has issued stark warnings via its Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, declaring US-allied bases and infrastructure in Persian Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait as legitimate targets for retaliation if used against Iran, explicitly sparing nations like Oman, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. Upcoming US oil tanker escorts through the Strait of Hormuz risk provoking further Iranian military action, such as strikes on refineries or ports, before the April 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
交易量
$53,050結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran now entering a second month, Tehran's missile barrages targeting Israel—including recent hits on Arad—and a direct attack wounding US troops at a Saudi air base have intensified regional tensions as of March 28. Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missile strike on Israel today, signaling proxy escalation. Tehran has issued stark warnings via its Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, declaring US-allied bases and infrastructure in Persian Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait as legitimate targets for retaliation if used against Iran, explicitly sparing nations like Oman, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. Upcoming US oil tanker escorts through the Strait of Hormuz risk provoking further Iranian military action, such as strikes on refineries or ports, before the April 30 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions