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地緣政治·伊朗

美國/以色列襲擊福爾多核設施... ？

Market icon
地緣政治·伊朗

美國/以色列襲擊福爾多核設施... ？

$574,149 交易量

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$574,149 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$574,917 交易量

8%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure since late February 2026, the fortified underground Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant near Qom remains unscathed, shaping trader consensus on low implied probabilities for a strike by March 31. Israel warned nearby civilians to evacuate in early March, hinting at preparations for earth-penetrating munitions, but recent hits focused on Natanz (US bunker-buster strike March 21) and Arak heavy-water plant (Israeli attacks March 27), amid Iranian claims of broader nuclear targeting. US diplomatic pushes, including a 15-point proposal demanding dismantlement of key sites and G7 coordination, compete with Israeli escalation threats and potential cabinet decisions on Fordow, leaving a tight resolution window amid frozen tensions.

Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure since late February 2026, the fortified underground Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant near Qom remains unscathed, shaping trader consensus on low implied probabilities for a strike by March 31. Israel warned nearby civilians to evacuate in early March, hinting at preparations for earth-penetrating munitions, but recent hits focused on Natanz (US bunker-buster strike March 21) and Arak heavy-water plant (Israeli attacks March 27), amid Iranian claims of broader nuclear targeting. US diplomatic pushes, including a 15-point proposal demanding dismantlement of key sites and G7 coordination, compete with Israeli escalation threats and potential cabinet decisions on Fordow, leaving a tight resolution window amid frozen tensions.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure since late February 2026, the fortified underground Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant near Qom remains unscathed, shaping trader consensus on low implied probabilities for a strike by March 31. Israel warned nearby civilians to evacuate in early March, hinting at preparations for earth-penetrating munitions, but recent hits focused on Natanz (US bunker-buster strike March 21) and Arak heavy-water plant (Israeli attacks March 27), amid Iranian claims of broader nuclear targeting. US diplomatic pushes, including a 15-point proposal demanding dismantlement of key sites and G7 coordination, compete with Israeli escalation threats and potential cabinet decisions on Fordow, leaving a tight resolution window amid frozen tensions.

Amid escalating US-Israel airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure since late February 2026, the fortified underground Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant near Qom remains unscathed, shaping trader consensus on low implied probabilities for a strike by March 31. Israel warned nearby civilians to evacuate in early March, hinting at preparations for earth-penetrating munitions, but recent hits focused on Natanz (US bunker-buster strike March 21) and Arak heavy-water plant (Israeli attacks March 27), amid Iranian claims of broader nuclear targeting. US diplomatic pushes, including a 15-point proposal demanding dismantlement of key sites and G7 coordination, compete with Israeli escalation threats and potential cabinet decisions on Fordow, leaving a tight resolution window amid frozen tensions.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國/以色列襲擊福爾多核設施... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3月31日" at 8%, followed by "3月15日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國/以色列襲擊福爾多核設施... ？" has generated $574.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國/以色列襲擊福爾多核設施... ？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "美國/以色列襲擊福爾多核設施... ？" is "3月31日" at just 8%, with "3月15日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "美國/以色列襲擊福爾多核設施... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.