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世界·特朗普

美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？

Market icon
世界·特朗普

美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？

12月 31

12月 31

是

16% 機率
Polymarket

$14,026 交易量

是

16% 機率
Polymarket

$14,026 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on an 84% implied probability for "No" reflects the U.S. government's longstanding non-recognition of Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, reaffirmed in the 2018 State Department Crimea Declaration and codified through bipartisan congressional measures like the 2025 Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act (S.1749 and H.R.1600), which prohibit federal actions implying sovereignty acceptance absent Ukraine's consent. Early Trump administration peace proposals in April 2025, including potential recognition as part of Ukraine-Russia negotiations floated in London and Paris, briefly stirred speculation but faced swift legislative pushback and stalled without formal steps. Ongoing sanctions, EU-aligned restrictive measures renewed through June 2026, and absence of recent diplomatic breakthroughs maintain high barriers to any policy shift before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.

Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$14,026
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on an 84% implied probability for "No" reflects the U.S. government's longstanding non-recognition of Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, reaffirmed in the 2018 State Department Crimea Declaration and codified through bipartisan congressional measures like the 2025 Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act (S.1749 and H.R.1600), which prohibit federal actions implying sovereignty acceptance absent Ukraine's consent. Early Trump administration peace proposals in April 2025, including potential recognition as part of Ukraine-Russia negotiations floated in London and Paris, briefly stirred speculation but faced swift legislative pushback and stalled without formal steps. Ongoing sanctions, EU-aligned restrictive measures renewed through June 2026, and absence of recent diplomatic breakthroughs maintain high barriers to any policy shift before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.

Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$14,026
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？ " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國會在2027年前承認俄羅斯對克里米亞的主權嗎？" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？ " has generated $14K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？ ," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？ " is "美國會在2027年前承認俄羅斯對克里米亞的主權嗎？" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美國在2027年之前承認俄羅斯對克裏米亞的主權？ " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.