Polymarket traders assign a 34% implied probability to South Korea GDP growth of 0.5–0.9% in Q1 2026 quarter-over-quarter, narrowly leading closely contested outcomes like 1.5–1.9% (25.5%) and 2.0–2.4% (25%), reflecting uncertainty in the post-Q4 2025 contraction of 0.3%. Strong February industrial production up 2.5%—the highest in over five years—and record March exports exceeding $80 billion, fueled by semiconductor demand, signal a firm rebound, aligning with ING's 0.6% qoq forecast. However, Middle East tensions, elevated oil prices, and OECD's 2026 growth downgrade to 1.7% introduce downside risks, offsetting Bank of Korea's 2.0% full-year projection. The advance estimate on April 28 remains the key catalyst for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於2.0–2.4% 31%
1.5–1.9% 26%
2.5%+ 19%
1.0–1.4% 11.0%
最新
最新
2026-04-23
<0%
15%
0.0–0.4%
3%
0.5–0.9%
32%
1.0–1.4%
11%
1.5–1.9%
26%
2.0–2.4%
25%
2.5%+
19%
2.0–2.4% 31%
1.5–1.9% 26%
2.5%+ 19%
1.0–1.4% 11.0%
最新
最新
2026-04-23
<0%
$0 交易量
15%
0.0–0.4%
$0 交易量
3%
0.5–0.9%
$0 交易量
32%
1.0–1.4%
$0 交易量
11%
1.5–1.9%
$338 交易量
26%
2.0–2.4%
$0 交易量
25%
2.5%+
$6,234 交易量
19%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders assign a 34% implied probability to South Korea GDP growth of 0.5–0.9% in Q1 2026 quarter-over-quarter, narrowly leading closely contested outcomes like 1.5–1.9% (25.5%) and 2.0–2.4% (25%), reflecting uncertainty in the post-Q4 2025 contraction of 0.3%. Strong February industrial production up 2.5%—the highest in over five years—and record March exports exceeding $80 billion, fueled by semiconductor demand, signal a firm rebound, aligning with ING's 0.6% qoq forecast. However, Middle East tensions, elevated oil prices, and OECD's 2026 growth downgrade to 1.7% introduce downside risks, offsetting Bank of Korea's 2.0% full-year projection. The advance estimate on April 28 remains the key catalyst for resolution.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
市場開放時間： Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$6,571結束日期
2026-04-23市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders assign a 34% implied probability to South Korea GDP growth of 0.5–0.9% in Q1 2026 quarter-over-quarter, narrowly leading closely contested outcomes like 1.5–1.9% (25.5%) and 2.0–2.4% (25%), reflecting uncertainty in the post-Q4 2025 contraction of 0.3%. Strong February industrial production up 2.5%—the highest in over five years—and record March exports exceeding $80 billion, fueled by semiconductor demand, signal a firm rebound, aligning with ING's 0.6% qoq forecast. However, Middle East tensions, elevated oil prices, and OECD's 2026 growth downgrade to 1.7% introduce downside risks, offsetting Bank of Korea's 2.0% full-year projection. The advance estimate on April 28 remains the key catalyst for resolution.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
交易量
$6,571結束日期
2026-04-23市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 34% implied probability to South Korea GDP growth of 0.5–0.9% in Q1 2026 quarter-over-quarter, narrowly leading closely contested outcomes like 1.5–1.9% (25.5%) and 2.0–2.4% (25%), reflecting uncertainty in the post-Q4 2025 contraction of 0.3%. Strong February industrial production up 2.5%—the highest in over five years—and record March exports exceeding $80 billion, fueled by semiconductor demand, signal a firm rebound, aligning with ING's 0.6% qoq forecast. However, Middle East tensions, elevated oil prices, and OECD's 2026 growth downgrade to 1.7% introduce downside risks, offsetting Bank of Korea's 2.0% full-year projection. The advance estimate on April 28 remains the key catalyst for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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