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在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？

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在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？

Dec 31

Dec 31

奧班－匈牙利總理 57%

迪亞斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統 16%

內塔尼亞胡 - 以色列總理 5.3%

斯塔默 - 英國首相 4.7%

Polymarket

$3,003,308 交易量

奧班－匈牙利總理 57%

迪亞斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統 16%

內塔尼亞胡 - 以色列總理 5.3%

斯塔默 - 英國首相 4.7%

Polymarket

$3,003,308 交易量

奧班－匈牙利總理

$23,085 交易量

57%

迪亞斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統

$16,475 交易量

16%

內塔尼亞胡 - 以色列總理

$795,061 交易量

5%

斯塔默 - 英國首相

$557,639 交易量

5%

高市 - 日本首相

$294,068 交易量

3%

普京 - 俄羅斯總統

$351,168 交易量

2%

佩特羅 - 哥倫比亞總統

$13,100 交易量

1%

2027年前沒有

$10,313 交易量

1%

川普 - 美國總統

$205,775 交易量

1%

澤連斯基 - 烏克蘭總統

$11,361 交易量

1%

馬克龍 - 法國總統

$68,230 交易量

1%

阿巴斯－巴勒斯坦總統

$58,400 交易量

1%

習近平－中共中央總書記

$39,702 交易量

1%

桑切斯 - 西班牙首相

$11,556 交易量

1%

羅德里格斯－委內瑞拉代理總統

$24,760 交易量

1%

勒科爾努－法國總理

$55,445 交易量

1%

盧拉·達席爾瓦 - 巴西總統

$40,366 交易量

1%

阿什拉 - 敘利亞總統

$28,433 交易量

1%

艾爾多安 - 土耳其總統

$76,335 交易量

<1%

紐森 - 加州州長

$113,406 交易量

<1%

阿爾巴尼斯 - 澳洲總理

$58,914 交易量

<1%

梅爾茨 - 德國總理

$29,045 交易量

<1%

Sheinbaum - 墨西哥總統

$64,605 交易量

<1%

金正恩 - 北韓最高領導人

$25,075 交易量

<1%

米萊伊 - 阿根廷總統

$36,831 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign Orbán a 57% implied probability of leaving power before 2027, propelled by opposition Tisza party's surging poll lead—53% to Fidesz's 39% among decided voters in recent March surveys—ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, where former ally Péter Magyar poses the strongest challenge yet to the incumbent PM. Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, amid Cuba's worst energy crisis with nationwide blackouts fueling 2024-2026 protests, U.S. oil blockade under Trump, and rejected negotiations over his removal. Netanyahu's 5.3% reflects coalition strains from Gaza truce and Iran tensions, eyeing 2026 elections, while Starmer (4.7%) and Takaichi (2.6%) face minor no-confidence murmurs and party critiques but retain relative stability.

Traders assign Orbán a 57% implied probability of leaving power before 2027, propelled by opposition Tisza party's surging poll lead—53% to Fidesz's 39% among decided voters in recent March surveys—ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, where former ally Péter Magyar poses the strongest challenge yet to the incumbent PM. Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, amid Cuba's worst energy crisis with nationwide blackouts fueling 2024-2026 protests, U.S. oil blockade under Trump, and rejected negotiations over his removal. Netanyahu's 5.3% reflects coalition strains from Gaza truce and Iran tensions, eyeing 2026 elections, while Starmer (4.7%) and Takaichi (2.6%) face minor no-confidence murmurs and party critiques but retain relative stability.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign Orbán a 57% implied probability of leaving power before 2027, propelled by opposition Tisza party's surging poll lead—53% to Fidesz's 39% among decided voters in recent March surveys—ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, where former ally Péter Magyar poses the strongest challenge yet to the incumbent PM. Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, amid Cuba's worst energy crisis with nationwide blackouts fueling 2024-2026 protests, U.S. oil blockade under Trump, and rejected negotiations over his removal. Netanyahu's 5.3% reflects coalition strains from Gaza truce and Iran tensions, eyeing 2026 elections, while Starmer (4.7%) and Takaichi (2.6%) face minor no-confidence murmurs and party critiques but retain relative stability.

Traders assign Orbán a 57% implied probability of leaving power before 2027, propelled by opposition Tisza party's surging poll lead—53% to Fidesz's 39% among decided voters in recent March surveys—ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, where former ally Péter Magyar poses the strongest challenge yet to the incumbent PM. Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5%, amid Cuba's worst energy crisis with nationwide blackouts fueling 2024-2026 protests, U.S. oil blockade under Trump, and rejected negotiations over his removal. Netanyahu's 5.3% reflects coalition strains from Gaza truce and Iran tensions, eyeing 2026 elections, while Starmer (4.7%) and Takaichi (2.6%) face minor no-confidence murmurs and party critiques but retain relative stability.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "奧班－匈牙利總理" at 57%, followed by "迪亞斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？" has generated $3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？" is "奧班－匈牙利總理" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "迪亞斯-卡內爾 - 古巴總統" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "在2027年之前失去權力的下一任領袖？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.