Incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement has opened New Hampshire's Senate seat, drawing Rep. Chris Pappas as the Democratic frontrunner dominating primary polls at 60-70% while former Sen. John Sununu leads the GOP primary at around 48% over Scott Brown. Recent general election surveys, including Emerson's March 21-23 poll showing Pappas 45%-Sununu 44% and a RealClearPolling average of Pappas +3 over four polls through late March, sustain trader consensus favoring Democrats at 83.5% implied probability despite the contest's tightness. Pappas' fundraising edge and New Hampshire's track record of Democratic Senate holds amid midterm headwinds for President Trump's party bolster this positioning, with the September 8 primaries as the next key catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$18,718 交易量
$18,718 交易量

民主黨
84%

共和黨
15%
$18,718 交易量
$18,718 交易量

民主黨
84%

共和黨
15%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement has opened New Hampshire's Senate seat, drawing Rep. Chris Pappas as the Democratic frontrunner dominating primary polls at 60-70% while former Sen. John Sununu leads the GOP primary at around 48% over Scott Brown. Recent general election surveys, including Emerson's March 21-23 poll showing Pappas 45%-Sununu 44% and a RealClearPolling average of Pappas +3 over four polls through late March, sustain trader consensus favoring Democrats at 83.5% implied probability despite the contest's tightness. Pappas' fundraising edge and New Hampshire's track record of Democratic Senate holds amid midterm headwinds for President Trump's party bolster this positioning, with the September 8 primaries as the next key catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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