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政治·11月4日選舉

VA-06眾議院選舉獲勝者

Market icon
政治·11月4日選舉

VA-06眾議院選舉獲勝者

$32,432 交易量

Polymarket

$32,432 交易量

民主黨

$19,814 交易量

78%

共和黨

$12,618 交易量

17%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 78% in Virginia's 6th Congressional District House race, driven by expectations surrounding the April 21 special election on a constitutional amendment that would empower the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps for 2026 and 2028. Proposed maps shift VA-06 leftward by adding urban and suburban Democratic areas from Roanoke and Lynchburg, transforming the safely Republican seat—where incumbent Ben Cline won by 37 points in 2024—into a battleground. Recent early voting shows elevated turnout in GOP-leaning districts like VA-06 opposing the measure, yet markets have plunged Republican odds from 52% to 17% in recent weeks amid Democratic state legislative flips. Crowded Democratic primary features Pete Barlow, Beth Macy, and Ken Mitchell, with Tom Perriello leading internal polls; Republican primary set for August 4 if amendment fails.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,432
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democratic victory at 78% in Virginia's 6th Congressional District House race, driven by expectations surrounding the April 21 special election on a constitutional amendment that would empower the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps for 2026 and 2028. Proposed maps shift VA-06 leftward by adding urban and suburban Democratic areas from Roanoke and Lynchburg, transforming the safely Republican seat—where incumbent Ben Cline won by 37 points in 2024—into a battleground. Recent early voting shows elevated turnout in GOP-leaning districts like VA-06 opposing the measure, yet markets have plunged Republican odds from 52% to 17% in recent weeks amid Democratic state legislative flips. Crowded Democratic primary features Pete Barlow, Beth Macy, and Ken Mitchell, with Tom Perriello leading internal polls; Republican primary set for August 4 if amendment fails.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,432
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"VA-06眾議院選舉獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "民主黨" at 78%, followed by "共和黨" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "VA-06眾議院選舉獲勝者" has generated $32.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "VA-06眾議院選舉獲勝者," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "VA-06眾議院選舉獲勝者" is "民主黨" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "共和黨" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "VA-06眾議院選舉獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.