Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, solidified his frontrunner status by filing for reelection in Missouri's 8th Congressional District on March 4, 2026, in a district rated Solid Republican with an R+27 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the seventh most Republican nationally. Smith's history of landslide victories, including 76% in 2024, underscores trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican Party, bolstered by a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring lesser-known challengers like former state Sen. Frank Barnitz, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard, and Gerald Cass ahead of the August 4 primaries. While commanding odds reflect structural incumbency advantages and weak opposition, scenarios like a GOP primary upset by Johnathon Tune, personal scandal, health issues, or an unforeseen national midterm wave could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$23,603 交易量
$23,603 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
94%
民主黨
6%
$23,603 交易量
$23,603 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
$13,448 交易量
94%
民主黨
$10,155 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, solidified his frontrunner status by filing for reelection in Missouri's 8th Congressional District on March 4, 2026, in a district rated Solid Republican with an R+27 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the seventh most Republican nationally. Smith's history of landslide victories, including 76% in 2024, underscores trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican Party, bolstered by a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring lesser-known challengers like former state Sen. Frank Barnitz, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard, and Gerald Cass ahead of the August 4 primaries. While commanding odds reflect structural incumbency advantages and weak opposition, scenarios like a GOP primary upset by Johnathon Tune, personal scandal, health issues, or an unforeseen national midterm wave could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$23,603結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, solidified his frontrunner status by filing for reelection in Missouri's 8th Congressional District on March 4, 2026, in a district rated Solid Republican with an R+27 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the seventh most Republican nationally. Smith's history of landslide victories, including 76% in 2024, underscores trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican Party, bolstered by a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring lesser-known challengers like former state Sen. Frank Barnitz, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard, and Gerald Cass ahead of the August 4 primaries. While commanding odds reflect structural incumbency advantages and weak opposition, scenarios like a GOP primary upset by Johnathon Tune, personal scandal, health issues, or an unforeseen national midterm wave could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,603結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, solidified his frontrunner status by filing for reelection in Missouri's 8th Congressional District on March 4, 2026, in a district rated Solid Republican with an R+27 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the seventh most Republican nationally. Smith's history of landslide victories, including 76% in 2024, underscores trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican Party, bolstered by a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring lesser-known challengers like former state Sen. Frank Barnitz, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard, and Gerald Cass ahead of the August 4 primaries. While commanding odds reflect structural incumbency advantages and weak opposition, scenarios like a GOP primary upset by Johnathon Tune, personal scandal, health issues, or an unforeseen national midterm wave could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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