US and Israeli forces continue Operation Epic Fury, now in its fourth week since launching nearly 900 strikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and Revolutionary Guard infrastructure across cities like Tehran and Mashhad. Recent developments include Iranian retaliatory threats against US troops—resulting in 15 injuries yesterday—Houthi missile strikes on Israel today, and Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point diplomatic plan on March 25, sustaining active hostilities without ceasefire signals. Traders weigh escalation risks from proxy attacks versus potential de-escalation via multilateral talks or regime concessions, with no confirmed end to military operations amid ongoing precision airstrikes and naval actions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$192,729 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
1%
March 31
4%
4月15日
27%
4月30日
59%
5月31日
77%
6月30日
92%
$192,729 交易量
March 29
$27,536 交易量
1%
March 30
$22,269 交易量
1%
March 31
$78,014 交易量
4%
4月15日
$3,077 交易量
27%
4月30日
$1,014 交易量
59%
5月31日
$1,793 交易量
77%
6月30日
$7 交易量
92%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue Operation Epic Fury, now in its fourth week since launching nearly 900 strikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and Revolutionary Guard infrastructure across cities like Tehran and Mashhad. Recent developments include Iranian retaliatory threats against US troops—resulting in 15 injuries yesterday—Houthi missile strikes on Israel today, and Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point diplomatic plan on March 25, sustaining active hostilities without ceasefire signals. Traders weigh escalation risks from proxy attacks versus potential de-escalation via multilateral talks or regime concessions, with no confirmed end to military operations amid ongoing precision airstrikes and naval actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$192,729結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue Operation Epic Fury, now in its fourth week since launching nearly 900 strikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and Revolutionary Guard infrastructure across cities like Tehran and Mashhad. Recent developments include Iranian retaliatory threats against US troops—resulting in 15 injuries yesterday—Houthi missile strikes on Israel today, and Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point diplomatic plan on March 25, sustaining active hostilities without ceasefire signals. Traders weigh escalation risks from proxy attacks versus potential de-escalation via multilateral talks or regime concessions, with no confirmed end to military operations amid ongoing precision airstrikes and naval actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$192,729結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces continue Operation Epic Fury, now in its fourth week since launching nearly 900 strikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and Revolutionary Guard infrastructure across cities like Tehran and Mashhad. Recent developments include Iranian retaliatory threats against US troops—resulting in 15 injuries yesterday—Houthi missile strikes on Israel today, and Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point diplomatic plan on March 25, sustaining active hostilities without ceasefire signals. Traders weigh escalation risks from proxy attacks versus potential de-escalation via multilateral talks or regime concessions, with no confirmed end to military operations amid ongoing precision airstrikes and naval actions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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