Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection campaign dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3, reflecting Maryland's heavy Democratic voter registration edge and historical incumbency advantages in this D+14 state. Despite a recent UMBC poll (March 17-22) showing Moore's approval dipping below 50% to 48% amid economic pessimism and state budget pressures, the fragmented Republican primary field—featuring low-fundraising contenders like Dan Cox and Ed Hale—lacks a viable statewide challenger following the March 26 debate. The June 23 primaries loom as the next catalyst, but a commanding Democratic position persists absent major scandals, a GOP moderate surge, or national Republican wave.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$15,172 交易量
$15,172 交易量
2026-11-03
Democrat
94%
Republican
6%
$15,172 交易量
$15,172 交易量
2026-11-03
Democrat
$6,589 交易量
94%
Republican
$8,583 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection campaign dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3, reflecting Maryland's heavy Democratic voter registration edge and historical incumbency advantages in this D+14 state. Despite a recent UMBC poll (March 17-22) showing Moore's approval dipping below 50% to 48% amid economic pessimism and state budget pressures, the fragmented Republican primary field—featuring low-fundraising contenders like Dan Cox and Ed Hale—lacks a viable statewide challenger following the March 26 debate. The June 23 primaries loom as the next catalyst, but a commanding Democratic position persists absent major scandals, a GOP moderate surge, or national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
交易量
$15,172結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection campaign dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3, reflecting Maryland's heavy Democratic voter registration edge and historical incumbency advantages in this D+14 state. Despite a recent UMBC poll (March 17-22) showing Moore's approval dipping below 50% to 48% amid economic pessimism and state budget pressures, the fragmented Republican primary field—featuring low-fundraising contenders like Dan Cox and Ed Hale—lacks a viable statewide challenger following the March 26 debate. The June 23 primaries loom as the next catalyst, but a commanding Democratic position persists absent major scandals, a GOP moderate surge, or national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$15,172結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore's reelection campaign dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3, reflecting Maryland's heavy Democratic voter registration edge and historical incumbency advantages in this D+14 state. Despite a recent UMBC poll (March 17-22) showing Moore's approval dipping below 50% to 48% amid economic pessimism and state budget pressures, the fragmented Republican primary field—featuring low-fundraising contenders like Dan Cox and Ed Hale—lacks a viable statewide challenger following the March 26 debate. The June 23 primaries loom as the next catalyst, but a commanding Democratic position persists absent major scandals, a GOP moderate surge, or national Republican wave.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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