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政治·民主人士

Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?

Market icon
政治·民主人士

Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?

19% 機率
Polymarket
最新
19% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski remains a registered Republican, with no official statements or actions indicating a party switch despite ongoing tensions with Trump-aligned GOP priorities, including her opposition to the SAVE Act and certain DHS funding provisions in recent Senate debates. Speculation peaked in June 2025 when she expressed openness to becoming an independent if it advanced Alaska's interests, and resurfaced in February 2026 amid frustrations with party leadership, but she has since reaffirmed her Senate focus over other ambitions like a gubernatorial run. Traders' 81% "No" consensus reflects her history of surviving intraparty challenges via Alaska's ranked-choice voting—securing re-election in 2022—and strategic incentives to maintain GOP affiliation ahead of her 2028 race, barring unforeseen scandals or primary pressures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,447
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski remains a registered Republican, with no official statements or actions indicating a party switch despite ongoing tensions with Trump-aligned GOP priorities, including her opposition to the SAVE Act and certain DHS funding provisions in recent Senate debates. Speculation peaked in June 2025 when she expressed openness to becoming an independent if it advanced Alaska's interests, and resurfaced in February 2026 amid frustrations with party leadership, but she has since reaffirmed her Senate focus over other ambitions like a gubernatorial run. Traders' 81% "No" consensus reflects her history of surviving intraparty challenges via Alaska's ranked-choice voting—securing re-election in 2022—and strategic incentives to maintain GOP affiliation ahead of her 2028 race, barring unforeseen scandals or primary pressures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,447
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 19% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 19¢, the market collectively assigns a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?" is 19% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.