Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus to 83.5% for a GOP hold in the 2026 U.S. Senate race, bolstered by his January filing for re-election with President Trump's full endorsement and a late February statewide tour touting tax cuts. Kansas' Republican lean, evident in Marshall's 2020 win exceeding 53% amid Trump's dominance, contrasts a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring eight lesser-known challengers announced last year, none yet polling competitively. Absent a high-profile recruit like Rep. Sharice Davids or outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly, historical base rates for safe seats favor Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries and November general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$13,459 交易量
$13,459 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
84%
民主黨
17%
$13,459 交易量
$13,459 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
$7,300 交易量
84%
民主黨
$6,158 交易量
17%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus to 83.5% for a GOP hold in the 2026 U.S. Senate race, bolstered by his January filing for re-election with President Trump's full endorsement and a late February statewide tour touting tax cuts. Kansas' Republican lean, evident in Marshall's 2020 win exceeding 53% amid Trump's dominance, contrasts a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring eight lesser-known challengers announced last year, none yet polling competitively. Absent a high-profile recruit like Rep. Sharice Davids or outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly, historical base rates for safe seats favor Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$13,459結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus to 83.5% for a GOP hold in the 2026 U.S. Senate race, bolstered by his January filing for re-election with President Trump's full endorsement and a late February statewide tour touting tax cuts. Kansas' Republican lean, evident in Marshall's 2020 win exceeding 53% amid Trump's dominance, contrasts a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring eight lesser-known challengers announced last year, none yet polling competitively. Absent a high-profile recruit like Rep. Sharice Davids or outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly, historical base rates for safe seats favor Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$13,459結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus to 83.5% for a GOP hold in the 2026 U.S. Senate race, bolstered by his January filing for re-election with President Trump's full endorsement and a late February statewide tour touting tax cuts. Kansas' Republican lean, evident in Marshall's 2020 win exceeding 53% amid Trump's dominance, contrasts a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring eight lesser-known challengers announced last year, none yet polling competitively. Absent a high-profile recruit like Rep. Sharice Davids or outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly, historical base rates for safe seats favor Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries and November general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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