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地緣政治·伊朗

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

Market icon
地緣政治·伊朗

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$10,075,558 交易量

>99% chance
Polymarket

$10,075,558 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between October 1 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between October 1 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?" has generated $10.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 2, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.