Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war—sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on over 900 Iranian missile and air defense sites on February 28—Iran retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel on March 1, causing casualties near Jerusalem and prompting further Israeli counterstrikes on Tehran as recently as March 26-27. Iran released images of damage from these attacks, while IRGC officials warned of "zero restraint" in hitting Israeli troops in Gaza and northern Israel if operations persist in Lebanon or Palestinian areas. Escalation signals dominate trader assessments of additional Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes by April 30, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire talks reported, heightening risks of intensified retaliation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$133,969 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
UAE
94%
Bahrain
94%
Kuwait
91%
Iraq
68%
Qatar
53%
Oman
40%
Syria
30%
Lebanon
29%
Yemen
16%
Pakistan
11%
Turkey
8%
Azerbaijan
8%
Cyprus
7%
UK
5%
India
4%
Poland
4%
Ukraine
4%
Germany
3%
Italy
3%
France
3%
Hungary
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Spain
2%
Georgia
2%
Armenia
2%
$133,969 交易量
UAE
$1,264 交易量
94%
Bahrain
$3,635 交易量
94%
Kuwait
$1,135 交易量
91%
Iraq
$482 交易量
68%
Qatar
$1,594 交易量
53%
Oman
$2,051 交易量
40%
Syria
$283 交易量
30%
Lebanon
$905 交易量
29%
Yemen
$389 交易量
16%
Pakistan
$0 交易量
11%
Turkey
$279 交易量
8%
Azerbaijan
$568 交易量
8%
Cyprus
$263 交易量
7%
UK
$1,793 交易量
5%
India
$0 交易量
4%
Poland
$27,897 交易量
4%
Ukraine
$1,392 交易量
4%
Germany
$4,281 交易量
3%
Italy
$110 交易量
3%
France
$0 交易量
3%
Hungary
$12,812 交易量
3%
Afghanistan
$0 交易量
3%
Spain
$1,672 交易量
2%
Georgia
$460 交易量
2%
Armenia
$583 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war—sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on over 900 Iranian missile and air defense sites on February 28—Iran retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel on March 1, causing casualties near Jerusalem and prompting further Israeli counterstrikes on Tehran as recently as March 26-27. Iran released images of damage from these attacks, while IRGC officials warned of "zero restraint" in hitting Israeli troops in Gaza and northern Israel if operations persist in Lebanon or Palestinian areas. Escalation signals dominate trader assessments of additional Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes by April 30, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire talks reported, heightening risks of intensified retaliation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
交易量
$133,969結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war—sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on over 900 Iranian missile and air defense sites on February 28—Iran retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel on March 1, causing casualties near Jerusalem and prompting further Israeli counterstrikes on Tehran as recently as March 26-27. Iran released images of damage from these attacks, while IRGC officials warned of "zero restraint" in hitting Israeli troops in Gaza and northern Israel if operations persist in Lebanon or Palestinian areas. Escalation signals dominate trader assessments of additional Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes by April 30, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire talks reported, heightening risks of intensified retaliation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$133,969結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war—sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on over 900 Iranian missile and air defense sites on February 28—Iran retaliated with missile barrages targeting Israel on March 1, causing casualties near Jerusalem and prompting further Israeli counterstrikes on Tehran as recently as March 26-27. Iran released images of damage from these attacks, while IRGC officials warned of "zero restraint" in hitting Israeli troops in Gaza and northern Israel if operations persist in Lebanon or Palestinian areas. Escalation signals dominate trader assessments of additional Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes by April 30, with no diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire talks reported, heightening risks of intensified retaliation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions