Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets since late February 2026, Iran has intensified retaliatory missile barrages against Israel, launching 5-11 volleys daily over the past week per IDF reports, with fresh sirens and interceptions reported across central Israel as recently as March 29. Tehran has threatened direct strikes on US forces amid reports of 3,500 Marines deploying via USS Tripoli and warnings against any ground invasion, heightening risks of broader escalation through the Strait of Hormuz. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan this weekend to explore ceasefires, though persistent proxy actions by Hezbollah and daily exchanges keep trader consensus focused on Israel's exposure before April 30 resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$153,501 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
98%
Kuwait
98%
UAE
93%
Iraq
85%
Qatar
52%
Oman
36%
Pakistan
32%
Syria
30%
Lebanon
26%
Azerbaijan
9%
Cyprus
7%
Turkey
7%
Yemen
6%
UK
6%
India
4%
Ukraine
4%
Germany
4%
Poland
3%
Italy
3%
Georgia
3%
Afghanistan
3%
France
3%
Spain
2%
Armenia
2%
Hungary
1%
$153,501 交易量
Bahrain
$8,667 交易量
98%
Kuwait
$2,979 交易量
98%
UAE
$2,620 交易量
93%
Iraq
$2,008 交易量
85%
Qatar
$2,979 交易量
52%
Oman
$3,287 交易量
36%
Pakistan
$0 交易量
32%
Syria
$283 交易量
30%
Lebanon
$1,276 交易量
26%
Azerbaijan
$673 交易量
9%
Cyprus
$263 交易量
7%
Turkey
$283 交易量
7%
Yemen
$527 交易量
6%
UK
$2,237 交易量
6%
India
$0 交易量
4%
Ukraine
$1,649 交易量
4%
Germany
$4,281 交易量
4%
Poland
$30,203 交易量
3%
Italy
$110 交易量
3%
Georgia
$867 交易量
3%
Afghanistan
$0 交易量
3%
France
$2,936 交易量
3%
Spain
$1,672 交易量
2%
Armenia
$655 交易量
2%
Hungary
$12,925 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets since late February 2026, Iran has intensified retaliatory missile barrages against Israel, launching 5-11 volleys daily over the past week per IDF reports, with fresh sirens and interceptions reported across central Israel as recently as March 29. Tehran has threatened direct strikes on US forces amid reports of 3,500 Marines deploying via USS Tripoli and warnings against any ground invasion, heightening risks of broader escalation through the Strait of Hormuz. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan this weekend to explore ceasefires, though persistent proxy actions by Hezbollah and daily exchanges keep trader consensus focused on Israel's exposure before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
交易量
$153,501結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets since late February 2026, Iran has intensified retaliatory missile barrages against Israel, launching 5-11 volleys daily over the past week per IDF reports, with fresh sirens and interceptions reported across central Israel as recently as March 29. Tehran has threatened direct strikes on US forces amid reports of 3,500 Marines deploying via USS Tripoli and warnings against any ground invasion, heightening risks of broader escalation through the Strait of Hormuz. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan this weekend to explore ceasefires, though persistent proxy actions by Hezbollah and daily exchanges keep trader consensus focused on Israel's exposure before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$153,501結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets since late February 2026, Iran has intensified retaliatory missile barrages against Israel, launching 5-11 volleys daily over the past week per IDF reports, with fresh sirens and interceptions reported across central Israel as recently as March 29. Tehran has threatened direct strikes on US forces amid reports of 3,500 Marines deploying via USS Tripoli and warnings against any ground invasion, heightening risks of broader escalation through the Strait of Hormuz. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan this weekend to explore ceasefires, though persistent proxy actions by Hezbollah and daily exchanges keep trader consensus focused on Israel's exposure before April 30 resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions