Escalated direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran—highlighted by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—have prompted Iranian officials to warn Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE against permitting use of their airspace or bases for anti-Iran operations, threatening severe retaliation. Gulf leaders have reaffirmed neutrality amid Abraham Accords normalization efforts, with no verified Iranian strikes on Gulf territory in recent months despite Houthi proxy disruptions to Red Sea shipping. Traders assess low immediate escalation risk but watch for Iran's vowed response, potential US sanctions shifts post-election, and diplomatic mediation via Oman or Qatar.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$54,954 交易量
March 23
77%
March 24
61%
March 25
89%
March 26
73%
March 27
66%
March 28
58%
March 29
60%
March 30
65%
March 31
61%
$54,954 交易量
March 23
77%
March 24
61%
March 25
89%
March 26
73%
March 27
66%
March 28
58%
March 29
60%
March 30
65%
March 31
61%
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間: Mar 17, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Escalated direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran—highlighted by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—have prompted Iranian officials to warn Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE against permitting use of their airspace or bases for anti-Iran operations, threatening severe retaliation. Gulf leaders have reaffirmed neutrality amid Abraham Accords normalization efforts, with no verified Iranian strikes on Gulf territory in recent months despite Houthi proxy disruptions to Red Sea shipping. Traders assess low immediate escalation risk but watch for Iran's vowed response, potential US sanctions shifts post-election, and diplomatic mediation via Oman or Qatar.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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