Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 48% as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 following his March 8 appointment by the Assembly of Experts after father Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes, reflecting hardliner continuity and IRGC backing despite no public sightings and conflicting injury reports—Iranian officials claim minor wounds, while US assessments suggest severe damage. Reza Pahlavi's 13% reflects heightened regime change speculation amid economic protests, war escalations, and his recent CPAC address urging no deals with current leaders. President Trump's March 30 remarks questioning Mojtaba's health and probing talks with Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf (6%) highlight leadership vulnerabilities and potential diplomatic shifts in the conflict.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊 48.0%
雷扎·巴列維 13%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫 5.9%
哈桑·霍梅尼 5.2%
$5,591,351 交易量
$5,591,351 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊
48%
雷扎·巴列維
13%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫
6%
哈桑·霍梅尼
5%
沒有國家元首
4%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
3%
哈桑·魯哈尼
3%
薩迪克·拉里賈尼
3%
馬蘇德·佩澤什基安
2%
馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德
1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
1%
納西爾·侯賽尼
1%
阿里·阿斯加爾·赫賈齊
1%
穆罕默德·米爾巴奇里
<1%
哈桑·沙里亞特馬達里
<1%
瑪麗亞姆·拉賈維
<1%
艾哈邁德·瓦希迪
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
<1%
穆斯塔法·普爾莫哈馬迪
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
<1%
賽義德·侯賽因·穆薩維安
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈達德-阿德爾
<1%
薩迪格·馬哈蘇利
<1%
賽義德·賈利利
<1%
艾哈邁德·侯賽尼·霍拉薩尼
<1%
馬蘇德·拉賈維
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
<1%
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊 48.0%
雷扎·巴列維 13%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫 5.9%
哈桑·霍梅尼 5.2%
$5,591,351 交易量
$5,591,351 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
穆吉塔巴·哈梅內伊
$962,721 交易量
48%
雷扎·巴列維
$120,860 交易量
13%
穆罕默德-巴格爾·加利巴夫
$157,778 交易量
6%
哈桑·霍梅尼
$665,506 交易量
5%
沒有國家元首
$359,812 交易量
4%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
$768,030 交易量
3%
哈桑·魯哈尼
$263,472 交易量
3%
薩迪克·拉里賈尼
$168,628 交易量
3%
馬蘇德·佩澤什基安
$232,211 交易量
2%
馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德
$44,217 交易量
1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
$224,736 交易量
1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$88,245 交易量
1%
納西爾·侯賽尼
$10,541 交易量
1%
阿里·阿斯加爾·赫賈齊
$70,561 交易量
1%
穆罕默德·米爾巴奇里
$265,757 交易量
<1%
哈桑·沙里亞特馬達里
$140,598 交易量
<1%
瑪麗亞姆·拉賈維
$236,127 交易量
<1%
艾哈邁德·瓦希迪
$186,457 交易量
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
$42,991 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·普爾莫哈馬迪
$56,684 交易量
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
$24,010 交易量
<1%
賽義德·侯賽因·穆薩維安
$28,953 交易量
<1%
Navid Shomali
$49,573 交易量
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈達德-阿德爾
$31,207 交易量
<1%
薩迪格·馬哈蘇利
$43,680 交易量
<1%
賽義德·賈利利
$38,167 交易量
<1%
艾哈邁德·侯賽尼·霍拉薩尼
$14,697 交易量
<1%
馬蘇德·拉賈維
$18,797 交易量
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
$23,826 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
$15,648 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 48% as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 following his March 8 appointment by the Assembly of Experts after father Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes, reflecting hardliner continuity and IRGC backing despite no public sightings and conflicting injury reports—Iranian officials claim minor wounds, while US assessments suggest severe damage. Reza Pahlavi's 13% reflects heightened regime change speculation amid economic protests, war escalations, and his recent CPAC address urging no deals with current leaders. President Trump's March 30 remarks questioning Mojtaba's health and probing talks with Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf (6%) highlight leadership vulnerabilities and potential diplomatic shifts in the conflict.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$5,591,351結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 48% as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 following his March 8 appointment by the Assembly of Experts after father Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes, reflecting hardliner continuity and IRGC backing despite no public sightings and conflicting injury reports—Iranian officials claim minor wounds, while US assessments suggest severe damage. Reza Pahlavi's 13% reflects heightened regime change speculation amid economic protests, war escalations, and his recent CPAC address urging no deals with current leaders. President Trump's March 30 remarks questioning Mojtaba's health and probing talks with Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf (6%) highlight leadership vulnerabilities and potential diplomatic shifts in the conflict.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$5,591,351結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 48% as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026 following his March 8 appointment by the Assembly of Experts after father Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes, reflecting hardliner continuity and IRGC backing despite no public sightings and conflicting injury reports—Iranian officials claim minor wounds, while US assessments suggest severe damage. Reza Pahlavi's 13% reflects heightened regime change speculation amid economic protests, war escalations, and his recent CPAC address urging no deals with current leaders. President Trump's March 30 remarks questioning Mojtaba's health and probing talks with Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf (6%) highlight leadership vulnerabilities and potential diplomatic shifts in the conflict.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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