Amid escalating US-Iran tensions and military strikes, trader consensus reflects dim prospects for a public Iranian commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile before the March 31 deadline. Late February indirect talks in Oman yielded mediator claims that Tehran agreed to zero accumulation of highly enriched uranium and full IAEA verification, but no official announcement emerged, and negotiations collapsed over US demands to transfer the 440kg near-weapons-grade stockpile abroad and dismantle key sites like Natanz and Fordow. Iran rejected a recent US 15-point ceasefire proposal as maximalist, while IAEA reports underscore ongoing enrichment. Upcoming diplomatic signals or Trump administration pressure could shift dynamics in the final days.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
$33,453 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
12%
June 30
28%
December 31
35%
$33,453 交易量
April 30
$6,372 交易量
12%
June 30
$4,635 交易量
28%
December 31
$22,446 交易量
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions and military strikes, trader consensus reflects dim prospects for a public Iranian commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile before the March 31 deadline. Late February indirect talks in Oman yielded mediator claims that Tehran agreed to zero accumulation of highly enriched uranium and full IAEA verification, but no official announcement emerged, and negotiations collapsed over US demands to transfer the 440kg near-weapons-grade stockpile abroad and dismantle key sites like Natanz and Fordow. Iran rejected a recent US 15-point ceasefire proposal as maximalist, while IAEA reports underscore ongoing enrichment. Upcoming diplomatic signals or Trump administration pressure could shift dynamics in the final days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
交易量
$33,453結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions and military strikes, trader consensus reflects dim prospects for a public Iranian commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile before the March 31 deadline. Late February indirect talks in Oman yielded mediator claims that Tehran agreed to zero accumulation of highly enriched uranium and full IAEA verification, but no official announcement emerged, and negotiations collapsed over US demands to transfer the 440kg near-weapons-grade stockpile abroad and dismantle key sites like Natanz and Fordow. Iran rejected a recent US 15-point ceasefire proposal as maximalist, while IAEA reports underscore ongoing enrichment. Upcoming diplomatic signals or Trump administration pressure could shift dynamics in the final days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$33,453結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran tensions and military strikes, trader consensus reflects dim prospects for a public Iranian commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile before the March 31 deadline. Late February indirect talks in Oman yielded mediator claims that Tehran agreed to zero accumulation of highly enriched uranium and full IAEA verification, but no official announcement emerged, and negotiations collapsed over US demands to transfer the 440kg near-weapons-grade stockpile abroad and dismantle key sites like Natanz and Fordow. Iran rejected a recent US 15-point ceasefire proposal as maximalist, while IAEA reports underscore ongoing enrichment. Upcoming diplomatic signals or Trump administration pressure could shift dynamics in the final days.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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