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政治·主要

IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
政治·主要

IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

Jim Baird 91%

Craig Haggard 13%

John Piper <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Jim Baird 91%

Craig Haggard 13%

John Piper <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Jim Baird

$0 交易量

86%

Craig Haggard

$277 交易量

13%

John Piper

$653 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird leads trader consensus at 88% implied probability in the IN-04 Republican primary, bolstered by his fundraising edge—$194,500 raised through late 2025 versus challenger Craig Haggard's $118,700—and endorsements from President Trump and Rep. Jim Jordan, reflecting strong GOP establishment support in this safely Republican district. With the May 5 primary five weeks away, Baird's path mirrors his 2024 three-way primary win at 64% against lower-profile foes, underscoring incumbency advantages like name recognition and constituent service. Haggard, a former state representative, holds 9% amid recent backing from NRA Executive Vice President Doug Hamlin and criticism of Baird's health issues following a winter car accident that claimed his wife's life in early March. John Piper lingers at 0.6% with minimal traction. Absent public polling, markets price in low upset risk barring late scandals or voter shifts.

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird leads trader consensus at 88% implied probability in the IN-04 Republican primary, bolstered by his fundraising edge—$194,500 raised through late 2025 versus challenger Craig Haggard's $118,700—and endorsements from President Trump and Rep. Jim Jordan, reflecting strong GOP establishment support in this safely Republican district. With the May 5 primary five weeks away, Baird's path mirrors his 2024 three-way primary win at 64% against lower-profile foes, underscoring incumbency advantages like name recognition and constituent service. Haggard, a former state representative, holds 9% amid recent backing from NRA Executive Vice President Doug Hamlin and criticism of Baird's health issues following a winter car accident that claimed his wife's life in early March. John Piper lingers at 0.6% with minimal traction. Absent public polling, markets price in low upset risk barring late scandals or voter shifts.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird leads trader consensus at 88% implied probability in the IN-04 Republican primary, bolstered by his fundraising edge—$194,500 raised through late 2025 versus challenger Craig Haggard's $118,700—and endorsements from President Trump and Rep. Jim Jordan, reflecting strong GOP establishment support in this safely Republican district. With the May 5 primary five weeks away, Baird's path mirrors his 2024 three-way primary win at 64% against lower-profile foes, underscoring incumbency advantages like name recognition and constituent service. Haggard, a former state representative, holds 9% amid recent backing from NRA Executive Vice President Doug Hamlin and criticism of Baird's health issues following a winter car accident that claimed his wife's life in early March. John Piper lingers at 0.6% with minimal traction. Absent public polling, markets price in low upset risk barring late scandals or voter shifts.

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird leads trader consensus at 88% implied probability in the IN-04 Republican primary, bolstered by his fundraising edge—$194,500 raised through late 2025 versus challenger Craig Haggard's $118,700—and endorsements from President Trump and Rep. Jim Jordan, reflecting strong GOP establishment support in this safely Republican district. With the May 5 primary five weeks away, Baird's path mirrors his 2024 three-way primary win at 64% against lower-profile foes, underscoring incumbency advantages like name recognition and constituent service. Haggard, a former state representative, holds 9% amid recent backing from NRA Executive Vice President Doug Hamlin and criticism of Baird's health issues following a winter car accident that claimed his wife's life in early March. John Piper lingers at 0.6% with minimal traction. Absent public polling, markets price in low upset risk barring late scandals or voter shifts.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jim Baird" at 86%, followed by "Craig Haggard" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jim Baird" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Craig Haggard" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.