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政治·主要

IA-02 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
政治·主要

IA-02 Republican Primary Winner

Joe Mitchell 94.4%

Charlie McClintock 3.4%

Shannon Lundgren <1%

Polymarket
最新

Joe Mitchell 94.4%

Charlie McClintock 3.4%

Shannon Lundgren <1%

Polymarket
最新

Joe Mitchell

$4,795 交易量

94%

Charlie McClintock

$1,817 交易量

3%

Shannon Lundgren

$0 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former state representative Joe Mitchell holds a commanding lead in the IA-02 Republican primary as trader consensus reflects his dominant fundraising—over $600,000 raised in Q1 2026, a record for non-incumbent GOP congressional campaigns in Iowa—and recent inclusion in the NRCC's MAGA Majority program on March 17. State Sen. Charlie McClintock trails with limited resources, while Rep. Shannon Lundgren withdrew in late January, narrowing the field ahead of the June 2 primary. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores Mitchell's organizational strength and party backing in the open seat race following Rep. Ashley Hinson's Senate bid. Upsets could arise from a late McClintock endorsement surge, damaging Mitchell revelations, or unexpected turnout shifts among conservative base voters.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$6,613
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former state representative Joe Mitchell holds a commanding lead in the IA-02 Republican primary as trader consensus reflects his dominant fundraising—over $600,000 raised in Q1 2026, a record for non-incumbent GOP congressional campaigns in Iowa—and recent inclusion in the NRCC's MAGA Majority program on March 17. State Sen. Charlie McClintock trails with limited resources, while Rep. Shannon Lundgren withdrew in late January, narrowing the field ahead of the June 2 primary. This skin-in-the-game positioning underscores Mitchell's organizational strength and party backing in the open seat race following Rep. Ashley Hinson's Senate bid. Upsets could arise from a late McClintock endorsement surge, damaging Mitchell revelations, or unexpected turnout shifts among conservative base voters.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$6,613
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"IA-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Joe Mitchell" at 94%, followed by "Charlie McClintock" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"IA-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 18, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "IA-02 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IA-02 Republican Primary Winner" is "Joe Mitchell" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Charlie McClintock" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IA-02 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.