Trader consensus on fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (52.5%) reflects the rapid degradation of Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes sinking over 40 Iranian vessels and destroying key missile stockpiles since early March. While Iran damaged approximately 20 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf through mid-March via projectiles and unmanned boats—causing casualties but no sinkings—traffic has plummeted 97%, reducing targets. Recent unverified Iranian claims of striking six U.S. landing ships off Kuwait on March 28 lack confirmation from U.S. Central Command, amid U.S. postponement of energy sector attacks signaling de-escalation potential. Houthi threats to resume Red Sea strikes remain unrealized, capping expectations for escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於<2 47%
2–3 16%
8–9 12%
4–5 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
52%
2–3
16%
4–5
10%
6–7
9%
8–9
12%
10+
8%
<2 47%
2–3 16%
8–9 12%
4–5 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
$782 交易量
52%
2–3
$0 交易量
16%
4–5
$0 交易量
10%
6–7
$0 交易量
9%
8–9
$0 交易量
12%
10+
$100 交易量
8%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (52.5%) reflects the rapid degradation of Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes sinking over 40 Iranian vessels and destroying key missile stockpiles since early March. While Iran damaged approximately 20 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf through mid-March via projectiles and unmanned boats—causing casualties but no sinkings—traffic has plummeted 97%, reducing targets. Recent unverified Iranian claims of striking six U.S. landing ships off Kuwait on March 28 lack confirmation from U.S. Central Command, amid U.S. postponement of energy sector attacks signaling de-escalation potential. Houthi threats to resume Red Sea strikes remain unrealized, capping expectations for escalation.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
交易量
$882結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (52.5%) reflects the rapid degradation of Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes sinking over 40 Iranian vessels and destroying key missile stockpiles since early March. While Iran damaged approximately 20 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf through mid-March via projectiles and unmanned boats—causing casualties but no sinkings—traffic has plummeted 97%, reducing targets. Recent unverified Iranian claims of striking six U.S. landing ships off Kuwait on March 28 lack confirmation from U.S. Central Command, amid U.S. postponement of energy sector attacks signaling de-escalation potential. Houthi threats to resume Red Sea strikes remain unrealized, capping expectations for escalation.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$882結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (52.5%) reflects the rapid degradation of Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. strikes sinking over 40 Iranian vessels and destroying key missile stockpiles since early March. While Iran damaged approximately 20 commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf through mid-March via projectiles and unmanned boats—causing casualties but no sinkings—traffic has plummeted 97%, reducing targets. Recent unverified Iranian claims of striking six U.S. landing ships off Kuwait on March 28 lack confirmation from U.S. Central Command, amid U.S. postponement of energy sector attacks signaling de-escalation potential. Houthi threats to resume Red Sea strikes remain unrealized, capping expectations for escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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