Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents failing to win primaries remains tightly split, with 7-9 losses at 39.9% edging >15 at 38.0%, reflecting early signals of anti-establishment fervor balanced against historical rarity of such defeats. The March 4 Texas primary upset—Rep. Dan Crenshaw's double-digit loss to state Rep. Steve Toth, the first GOP House incumbent ouster of 2026—lacked a Trump endorsement and fueled bets on a MAGA-driven wave, while Rep. Tony Gonzales advanced to a May runoff against activist Brandon Herrera amid ethics probes. Voter dissatisfaction with perceived moderate stances keeps pressure on roughly 11 vulnerable incumbents per Cook Political Report, but incumbency advantages and low base rates from recent cycles cap expectations below 15 for many traders. Upcoming primaries in California, Kentucky, and elsewhere, plus runoff outcomes, could tip the balance toward higher tallies if insurgent challengers consolidate support.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於少於3場 12.7%
10-12 <1%
13-15 <1%
4-6 0
最新
最新
少於3場
13%
4-6
33%
7-9
40%
10-12
25%
13-15
25%
>15
38%
少於3場 12.7%
10-12 <1%
13-15 <1%
4-6 0
最新
最新
少於3場
$0 交易量
13%
4-6
$0 交易量
33%
7-9
$0 交易量
40%
10-12
$0 交易量
25%
13-15
$0 交易量
25%
>15
$0 交易量
38%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents failing to win primaries remains tightly split, with 7-9 losses at 39.9% edging >15 at 38.0%, reflecting early signals of anti-establishment fervor balanced against historical rarity of such defeats. The March 4 Texas primary upset—Rep. Dan Crenshaw's double-digit loss to state Rep. Steve Toth, the first GOP House incumbent ouster of 2026—lacked a Trump endorsement and fueled bets on a MAGA-driven wave, while Rep. Tony Gonzales advanced to a May runoff against activist Brandon Herrera amid ethics probes. Voter dissatisfaction with perceived moderate stances keeps pressure on roughly 11 vulnerable incumbents per Cook Political Report, but incumbency advantages and low base rates from recent cycles cap expectations below 15 for many traders. Upcoming primaries in California, Kentucky, and elsewhere, plus runoff outcomes, could tip the balance toward higher tallies if insurgent challengers consolidate support.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市場開放時間： Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
交易量
$0市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents failing to win primaries remains tightly split, with 7-9 losses at 39.9% edging >15 at 38.0%, reflecting early signals of anti-establishment fervor balanced against historical rarity of such defeats. The March 4 Texas primary upset—Rep. Dan Crenshaw's double-digit loss to state Rep. Steve Toth, the first GOP House incumbent ouster of 2026—lacked a Trump endorsement and fueled bets on a MAGA-driven wave, while Rep. Tony Gonzales advanced to a May runoff against activist Brandon Herrera amid ethics probes. Voter dissatisfaction with perceived moderate stances keeps pressure on roughly 11 vulnerable incumbents per Cook Political Report, but incumbency advantages and low base rates from recent cycles cap expectations below 15 for many traders. Upcoming primaries in California, Kentucky, and elsewhere, plus runoff outcomes, could tip the balance toward higher tallies if insurgent challengers consolidate support.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$0市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents failing to win primaries remains tightly split, with 7-9 losses at 39.9% edging >15 at 38.0%, reflecting early signals of anti-establishment fervor balanced against historical rarity of such defeats. The March 4 Texas primary upset—Rep. Dan Crenshaw's double-digit loss to state Rep. Steve Toth, the first GOP House incumbent ouster of 2026—lacked a Trump endorsement and fueled bets on a MAGA-driven wave, while Rep. Tony Gonzales advanced to a May runoff against activist Brandon Herrera amid ethics probes. Voter dissatisfaction with perceived moderate stances keeps pressure on roughly 11 vulnerable incumbents per Cook Political Report, but incumbency advantages and low base rates from recent cycles cap expectations below 15 for many traders. Upcoming primaries in California, Kentucky, and elsewhere, plus runoff outcomes, could tip the balance toward higher tallies if insurgent challengers consolidate support.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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