Trader consensus favors Elon Musk exceeding 1400 tweets from his @elonmusk account in March 2026 at 55.1% implied probability, driven by his consistent high-volume posting history averaging 45-60 tweets daily in recent months, including peaks above 1500 during intense periods like late 2024 product launches and platform updates. Lower ranges trail as sustained activity shows no deceleration, with November 2024 data hitting 1700+ amid X enhancements and SpaceX milestones. Recent developments, such as ongoing Tesla AI announcements and xAI integrations, reinforce expectations of elevated engagement, while historical March averages (around 1300-1400) support the upper bins absent any announced posting limits.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於1400+ 55.0%
1360-1399 16.8%
1320-1359 10.9%
1240-1279 5.9%
$3,114,646 交易量
$3,114,646 交易量
920-959
<1%
960-999
<1%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
<1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
1%
1160-1199
1%
1200-1239
3%
1240-1279
6%
1280-1319
6%
1320-1359
11%
1360-1399
17%
1400+
55%
1400+ 55.0%
1360-1399 16.8%
1320-1359 10.9%
1240-1279 5.9%
$3,114,646 交易量
$3,114,646 交易量
920-959
<1%
960-999
<1%
1000-1039
<1%
1040-1079
<1%
1080-1119
1%
1120-1159
1%
1160-1199
1%
1200-1239
3%
1240-1279
6%
1280-1319
6%
1320-1359
11%
1360-1399
17%
1400+
55%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間: Jan 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Elon Musk exceeding 1400 tweets from his @elonmusk account in March 2026 at 55.1% implied probability, driven by his consistent high-volume posting history averaging 45-60 tweets daily in recent months, including peaks above 1500 during intense periods like late 2024 product launches and platform updates. Lower ranges trail as sustained activity shows no deceleration, with November 2024 data hitting 1700+ amid X enhancements and SpaceX milestones. Recent developments, such as ongoing Tesla AI announcements and xAI integrations, reinforce expectations of elevated engagement, while historical March averages (around 1300-1400) support the upper bins absent any announced posting limits.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions