**Recent polling has lifted the Liberals (Liberalerna) closer to Sweden’s 4% parliamentary threshold ahead of the September 13 election, supporting the 59.5% implied probability for them securing seats.** A Novus survey from September 1–5 placed the party at 4.3%, the first reading above the barrier in years and a gain from prior lows near 2%. Other late surveys, including Ipsos, show them at 3.5%, while broader aggregates hover around 2.8%. As the smallest Tidö coalition partner alongside the Moderates and Christian Democrats, the Liberals benefit from bloc momentum as the right-wing side narrows the opposition’s lead. Voter concerns over education, healthcare, and law-and-order have featured in the campaign, areas where the party has sought visibility. Persistent volatility near the threshold and mixed recent results keep the outcome finely balanced in trader assessments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
60% 機率
$155,778 交易量
$155,778 交易量
2026-09-12
是
60% 機率
$155,778 交易量
$155,778 交易量
2026-09-12
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent polling has lifted the Liberals (Liberalerna) closer to Sweden’s 4% parliamentary threshold ahead of the September 13 election, supporting the 59.5% implied probability for them securing seats.**
A Novus survey from September 1–5 placed the party at 4.3%, the first reading above the barrier in years and a gain from prior lows near 2%. Other late surveys, including Ipsos, show them at 3.5%, while broader aggregates hover around 2.8%. As the smallest Tidö coalition partner alongside the Moderates and Christian Democrats, the Liberals benefit from bloc momentum as the right-wing side narrows the opposition’s lead. Voter concerns over education, healthcare, and law-and-order have featured in the campaign, areas where the party has sought visibility. Persistent volatility near the threshold and mixed recent results keep the outcome finely balanced in trader assessments.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 5:12 AM ET
交易量
$155,778結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:12 AM ETParliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent polling has lifted the Liberals (Liberalerna) closer to Sweden’s 4% parliamentary threshold ahead of the September 13 election, supporting the 59.5% implied probability for them securing seats.**
A Novus survey from September 1–5 placed the party at 4.3%, the first reading above the barrier in years and a gain from prior lows near 2%. Other late surveys, including Ipsos, show them at 3.5%, while broader aggregates hover around 2.8%. As the smallest Tidö coalition partner alongside the Moderates and Christian Democrats, the Liberals benefit from bloc momentum as the right-wing side narrows the opposition’s lead. Voter concerns over education, healthcare, and law-and-order have featured in the campaign, areas where the party has sought visibility. Persistent volatility near the threshold and mixed recent results keep the outcome finely balanced in trader assessments.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
交易量
$155,778結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:12 AM ET**Recent polling has lifted the Liberals (Liberalerna) closer to Sweden’s 4% parliamentary threshold ahead of the September 13 election, supporting the 59.5% implied probability for them securing seats.** A Novus survey from September 1–5 placed the party at 4.3%, the first reading above the barrier in years and a gain from prior lows near 2%. Other late surveys, including Ipsos, show them at 3.5%, while broader aggregates hover around 2.8%. As the smallest Tidö coalition partner alongside the Moderates and Christian Democrats, the Liberals benefit from bloc momentum as the right-wing side narrows the opposition’s lead. Voter concerns over education, healthcare, and law-and-order have featured in the campaign, areas where the party has sought visibility. Persistent volatility near the threshold and mixed recent results keep the outcome finely balanced in trader assessments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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