Recent polling averages place Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing list led by reserve Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, at roughly 2.4–3.4 seats ahead of the 2026 Knesset election, with the party clearing the 3.25% threshold in only about half of the latest surveys. This positioning stems from a sharp decline since its August launch, when early polls projected 4–8 seats. Key drivers include repeated strategic errors, such as refusing alliances with parties like Religious Zionism–Zehut, leadership critiques over differentiation from established right-wing options, and internal controversies that eroded momentum. Traders’ strong consensus on fewer than four seats reflects this sustained trend and the party’s inability to consolidate fragmented right-wing support.