**Recent USGS and global seismic network data indicate seven earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurred worldwide between September 14 and 20, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 84.7% implied probability for that outcome.** Activity included a M6.5 event west of Nikolski, Alaska on September 17, a M6.4 near Kainantu, Papua New Guinea on September 20, a M5.7 south of Africa the same day, and additional M5.5–5.6 shocks in Indonesia and other regions, without forming an anomalous cluster. These figures match long-term weekly averages for events above the 5.5 threshold on the moment magnitude scale, as tracked by authoritative agencies. Trader consensus reflects the absence of unusual tectonic drivers or model shifts that would push the total notably higher or lower, with resolution hinging on final verified counts within the exact date window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
7 84.8%
8 3.6%
13 3.2%
≤6 1.0%
$50,693 Vol.
$50,693 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
≤6
1%
7
85%
8
4%
9
<1%
10
1%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
3%
more than 13
<1%
7 84.8%
8 3.6%
13 3.2%
≤6 1.0%
$50,693 Vol.
$50,693 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
≤6
$25,327 Vol.
1%
7
$8,087 Vol.
85%
8
$2,205 Vol.
4%
9
$1,211 Vol.
<1%
10
$984 Vol.
1%
11
$1,719 Vol.
1%
12
$4,318 Vol.
<1%
13
$1,753 Vol.
3%
more than 13
$5,089 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Recent USGS and global seismic network data indicate seven earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurred worldwide between September 14 and 20, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 84.7% implied probability for that outcome.** Activity included a M6.5 event west of Nikolski, Alaska on September 17, a M6.4 near Kainantu, Papua New Guinea on September 20, a M5.7 south of Africa the same day, and additional M5.5–5.6 shocks in Indonesia and other regions, without forming an anomalous cluster. These figures match long-term weekly averages for events above the 5.5 threshold on the moment magnitude scale, as tracked by authoritative agencies. Trader consensus reflects the absence of unusual tectonic drivers or model shifts that would push the total notably higher or lower, with resolution hinging on final verified counts within the exact date window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 4:54 PM ET
Volume
$50,693End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Recent USGS and global seismic network data indicate seven earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurred worldwide between September 14 and 20, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 84.7% implied probability for that outcome.** Activity included a M6.5 event west of Nikolski, Alaska on September 17, a M6.4 near Kainantu, Papua New Guinea on September 20, a M5.7 south of Africa the same day, and additional M5.5–5.6 shocks in Indonesia and other regions, without forming an anomalous cluster. These figures match long-term weekly averages for events above the 5.5 threshold on the moment magnitude scale, as tracked by authoritative agencies. Trader consensus reflects the absence of unusual tectonic drivers or model shifts that would push the total notably higher or lower, with resolution hinging on final verified counts within the exact date window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$50,693End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47de9d...**Recent USGS and global seismic network data indicate seven earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurred worldwide between September 14 and 20, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 84.7% implied probability for that outcome.** Activity included a M6.5 event west of Nikolski, Alaska on September 17, a M6.4 near Kainantu, Papua New Guinea on September 20, a M5.7 south of Africa the same day, and additional M5.5–5.6 shocks in Indonesia and other regions, without forming an anomalous cluster. These figures match long-term weekly averages for events above the 5.5 threshold on the moment magnitude scale, as tracked by authoritative agencies. Trader consensus reflects the absence of unusual tectonic drivers or model shifts that would push the total notably higher or lower, with resolution hinging on final verified counts within the exact date window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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