The market's heavy weighting toward a 2026 maximum below 7.9 reflects the current global high of 7.8, recorded offshore Mindanao in the Philippines during a June megathrust event on the Cotabato Trench, followed by a 7.7 in Indonesia's Flores region in mid-August. USGS data show only eleven M7+ events year-to-date, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly one M8+ quake worldwide. Subduction-zone segments capable of larger ruptures have remained quiet through early September, and the short remaining window before year-end limits opportunities for a great earthquake. Traders assign modest probabilities to 8.0–8.3 outcomes because historical analogs and current seismic monitoring indicate that exceeding the existing maximum would require an unusually energetic megathrust rupture in the final months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 8.6%
8.6 – 8.7 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
75%
8.0 – 8.1
12%
8.2 – 8.3
9%
8.4 – 8.5
2%
8.6 – 8.7
4%
8.8 – 8.9
2%
9.0 or above
3%
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 8.6%
8.6 – 8.7 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
$2,113 Vol.
75%
8.0 – 8.1
$222 Vol.
12%
8.2 – 8.3
$331 Vol.
9%
8.4 – 8.5
$201 Vol.
2%
8.6 – 8.7
$306 Vol.
4%
8.8 – 8.9
$203 Vol.
2%
9.0 or above
$156 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market's heavy weighting toward a 2026 maximum below 7.9 reflects the current global high of 7.8, recorded offshore Mindanao in the Philippines during a June megathrust event on the Cotabato Trench, followed by a 7.7 in Indonesia's Flores region in mid-August. USGS data show only eleven M7+ events year-to-date, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly one M8+ quake worldwide. Subduction-zone segments capable of larger ruptures have remained quiet through early September, and the short remaining window before year-end limits opportunities for a great earthquake. Traders assign modest probabilities to 8.0–8.3 outcomes because historical analogs and current seismic monitoring indicate that exceeding the existing maximum would require an unusually energetic megathrust rupture in the final months.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volume
$3,531End Date
Jan 4, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.The market's heavy weighting toward a 2026 maximum below 7.9 reflects the current global high of 7.8, recorded offshore Mindanao in the Philippines during a June megathrust event on the Cotabato Trench, followed by a 7.7 in Indonesia's Flores region in mid-August. USGS data show only eleven M7+ events year-to-date, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly one M8+ quake worldwide. Subduction-zone segments capable of larger ruptures have remained quiet through early September, and the short remaining window before year-end limits opportunities for a great earthquake. Traders assign modest probabilities to 8.0–8.3 outcomes because historical analogs and current seismic monitoring indicate that exceeding the existing maximum would require an unusually energetic megathrust rupture in the final months.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$3,531End Date
Jan 4, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's heavy weighting toward a 2026 maximum below 7.9 reflects the current global high of 7.8, recorded offshore Mindanao in the Philippines during a June megathrust event on the Cotabato Trench, followed by a 7.7 in Indonesia's Flores region in mid-August. USGS data show only eleven M7+ events year-to-date, consistent with typical annual rates of roughly one M8+ quake worldwide. Subduction-zone segments capable of larger ruptures have remained quiet through early September, and the short remaining window before year-end limits opportunities for a great earthquake. Traders assign modest probabilities to 8.0–8.3 outcomes because historical analogs and current seismic monitoring indicate that exceeding the existing maximum would require an unusually energetic megathrust rupture in the final months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions