Trader consensus prices a 93.5% chance President Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of impeachment proceedings, criminal indictments, or party pressure sufficient to force an early exit, consistent with historical precedents where presidents endure low approval ratings without stepping down. Recent cabinet shakeups, including FDA Commissioner Marty Makary's resignation on May 12 amid reported White House tensions and prior departures like Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi in early May, underscore administration volatility but have not eroded Trump's grip on office. Partisan calls for resignation, such as opinion pieces likening his polls to Nixon-era levels in late April, remain rhetorical without institutional traction. Trump's May 4 joke about serving eight or nine more years further signals resolve, with 2026 midterms looming as a potential lame-duck catalyst but unlikely to prompt voluntary departure before term's midpoint.