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icon for Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?
Политика·Трамп

Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?

icon for Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?
Политика·Трамп

Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?

$559,662 Объем

31 мар. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$559,662 Объем

Polymarket

31 декабря 2026 года

$4,701 Объем

28%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Senate Republicans hold a 53-47 majority but face Democratic filibusters blocking priorities like the SAVE America Act, which mandates proof of citizenship for federal voter registration and passed the House in early 2025. President Trump and senators such as Mike Lee and Ron Johnson have repeatedly called for the nuclear option—a simple majority vote to change Senate rules and lower the 60-vote cloture threshold for legislation—citing stalled immigration reforms and election integrity measures. However, Majority Leader John Thune opposes full elimination, warning of retaliation if Democrats gain seats in the 2026 midterms, a stance echoed by retiring senators including McConnell and Tillis. Debate intensified in March-April after the SAVE Act languished, with no rule change as of early May; upcoming appropriations votes and debt ceiling talks could pressure GOP unity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
Объем
$559,662
Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Senate Republicans hold a 53-47 majority but face Democratic filibusters blocking priorities like the SAVE America Act, which mandates proof of citizenship for federal voter registration and passed the House in early 2025. President Trump and senators such as Mike Lee and Ron Johnson have repeatedly called for the nuclear option—a simple majority vote to change Senate rules and lower the 60-vote cloture threshold for legislation—citing stalled immigration reforms and election integrity measures. However, Majority Leader John Thune opposes full elimination, warning of retaliation if Democrats gain seats in the 2026 midterms, a stance echoed by retiring senators including McConnell and Tillis. Debate intensified in March-April after the SAVE Act languished, with no rule change as of early May; upcoming appropriations votes and debt ceiling talks could pressure GOP unity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
Объем
$559,662
Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 4 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «31 декабря 2026 года» с 28%, за ним следует «31 октября» с 0%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 28¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 28%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $559.7K с момента запуска рынка Oct 1, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?», просмотри 4 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» — «31 декабря 2026 года» с 28%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 28%. Следующий ближайший исход — «31 октября» с 0%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.