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Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?

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Политика·Трамп

Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?

$550,744 Объем

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$550,744 Объем

Polymarket

31 марта 2026 года

$30,590 Объем

1%

31 декабря 2026 года

$4,180 Объем

52%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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«Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 4 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «31 декабря 2026 года» с 52%, за ним следует «31 марта 2026 года» с 1%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 52¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 52%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $550.7K с момента запуска рынка Oct 1, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

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Текущий фаворит для «Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» — «31 декабря 2026 года» с 52%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 52%. Следующий ближайший исход — «31 марта 2026 года» с 1%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.