Polls consistently show no candidate surpassing the 50% majority threshold required for an outright win in Texas' Republican U.S. Senate primary, fueling trader consensus at near-100% odds for a runoff between the top two finishers. Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads aggregates around 45-60% depending on the survey, but a fragmented field—including challengers like Holland Gibson and Rufus Lopez—splits the remaining vote, with recent University of Houston and internal campaign data reinforcing this dynamic. Historical precedents in multi-candidate Texas GOP primaries favor runoffs absent late consolidation. Realistic shifts could stem from higher-than-expected turnout boosting Cruz or a major endorsement, though the March 5 primary looms with minimal time for change.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПолучит ли какой-либо кандидат прямую победу на республиканских праймериз в Сенате Техаса?
Получит ли какой-либо кандидат прямую победу на республиканских праймериз в Сенате Техаса?
Да
$0.00 Объем
$0.00 Объем
3 мар. 2026 г.
Да
$0.00 Объем
$0.00 Объем
3 мар. 2026 г.
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Polls consistently show no candidate surpassing the 50% majority threshold required for an outright win in Texas' Republican U.S. Senate primary, fueling trader consensus at near-100% odds for a runoff between the top two finishers. Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads aggregates around 45-60% depending on the survey, but a fragmented field—including challengers like Holland Gibson and Rufus Lopez—splits the remaining vote, with recent University of Houston and internal campaign data reinforcing this dynamic. Historical precedents in multi-candidate Texas GOP primaries favor runoffs absent late consolidation. Realistic shifts could stem from higher-than-expected turnout boosting Cruz or a major endorsement, though the March 5 primary looms with minimal time for change.
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 4, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
3 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 4, 2026, 1:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Polls consistently show no candidate surpassing the 50% majority threshold required for an outright win in Texas' Republican U.S. Senate primary, fueling trader consensus at near-100% odds for a runoff between the top two finishers. Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads aggregates around 45-60% depending on the survey, but a fragmented field—including challengers like Holland Gibson and Rufus Lopez—splits the remaining vote, with recent University of Houston and internal campaign data reinforcing this dynamic. Historical precedents in multi-candidate Texas GOP primaries favor runoffs absent late consolidation. Realistic shifts could stem from higher-than-expected turnout boosting Cruz or a major endorsement, though the March 5 primary looms with minimal time for change.
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
3 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 4, 2026, 1:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Polls consistently show no candidate surpassing the 50% majority threshold required for an outright win in Texas' Republican U.S. Senate primary, fueling trader consensus at near-100% odds for a runoff between the top two finishers. Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads aggregates around 45-60% depending on the survey, but a fragmented field—including challengers like Holland Gibson and Rufus Lopez—splits the remaining vote, with recent University of Houston and internal campaign data reinforcing this dynamic. Historical precedents in multi-candidate Texas GOP primaries favor runoffs absent late consolidation. Realistic shifts could stem from higher-than-expected turnout boosting Cruz or a major endorsement, though the March 5 primary looms with minimal time for change.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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