Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability for a Democratic "blue wave" in the 2026 midterms—defined as Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats—driven by persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging Democrats +4 to +6 points, as shown in recent Emerson and Morning Consult surveys. Republicans hold narrow majorities in the 119th Congress (House 219-212, Senate 53-47 including independents), but historical midterm losses for the president's party, coupled with Democrats flipping over 28 Republican state legislative seats in special elections since January, signal building momentum. GOP legislative gridlock and backlash from foreign policy escalations, like U.S. involvement in Iran tensions, have eroded base enthusiasm, favoring opposition gains in battlegrounds ahead of November voting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$27,700 Объем
$27,700 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
$27,700 Объем
$27,700 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability for a Democratic "blue wave" in the 2026 midterms—defined as Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats—driven by persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging Democrats +4 to +6 points, as shown in recent Emerson and Morning Consult surveys. Republicans hold narrow majorities in the 119th Congress (House 219-212, Senate 53-47 including independents), but historical midterm losses for the president's party, coupled with Democrats flipping over 28 Republican state legislative seats in special elections since January, signal building momentum. GOP legislative gridlock and backlash from foreign policy escalations, like U.S. involvement in Iran tensions, have eroded base enthusiasm, favoring opposition gains in battlegrounds ahead of November voting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Объем
$27,700Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability for a Democratic "blue wave" in the 2026 midterms—defined as Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats—driven by persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging Democrats +4 to +6 points, as shown in recent Emerson and Morning Consult surveys. Republicans hold narrow majorities in the 119th Congress (House 219-212, Senate 53-47 including independents), but historical midterm losses for the president's party, coupled with Democrats flipping over 28 Republican state legislative seats in special elections since January, signal building momentum. GOP legislative gridlock and backlash from foreign policy escalations, like U.S. involvement in Iran tensions, have eroded base enthusiasm, favoring opposition gains in battlegrounds ahead of November voting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Объем
$27,700Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability for a Democratic "blue wave" in the 2026 midterms—defined as Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats—driven by persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging Democrats +4 to +6 points, as shown in recent Emerson and Morning Consult surveys. Republicans hold narrow majorities in the 119th Congress (House 219-212, Senate 53-47 including independents), but historical midterm losses for the president's party, coupled with Democrats flipping over 28 Republican state legislative seats in special elections since January, signal building momentum. GOP legislative gridlock and backlash from foreign policy escalations, like U.S. involvement in Iran tensions, have eroded base enthusiasm, favoring opposition gains in battlegrounds ahead of November voting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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