Trader consensus prices a 75.5% implied probability for Democrats achieving a blue wave—securing 218 or more House seats and 49 or more Senate seats—in the November 2026 midterms, driven by persistent leads in generic ballot polling averages of 4-6 points and President Trump's approval rating sinking to record lows around 38% amid high inflation, gas prices, and escalation in the Iran conflict. Recent special elections in Georgia and Wisconsin saw Democrats overperform 2024 baselines by over 10 points, signaling momentum in battleground areas. Historical midterm trends show the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses, bolstering expectations for Democratic gains despite Republican redistricting edges and vulnerable Senate seats like Michigan and Georgia. Primaries starting soon and economic updates remain key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$42,161 Объем
$42,161 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
$42,161 Объем
$42,161 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 75.5% implied probability for Democrats achieving a blue wave—securing 218 or more House seats and 49 or more Senate seats—in the November 2026 midterms, driven by persistent leads in generic ballot polling averages of 4-6 points and President Trump's approval rating sinking to record lows around 38% amid high inflation, gas prices, and escalation in the Iran conflict. Recent special elections in Georgia and Wisconsin saw Democrats overperform 2024 baselines by over 10 points, signaling momentum in battleground areas. Historical midterm trends show the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses, bolstering expectations for Democratic gains despite Republican redistricting edges and vulnerable Senate seats like Michigan and Georgia. Primaries starting soon and economic updates remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Объем
$42,161Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 75.5% implied probability for Democrats achieving a blue wave—securing 218 or more House seats and 49 or more Senate seats—in the November 2026 midterms, driven by persistent leads in generic ballot polling averages of 4-6 points and President Trump's approval rating sinking to record lows around 38% amid high inflation, gas prices, and escalation in the Iran conflict. Recent special elections in Georgia and Wisconsin saw Democrats overperform 2024 baselines by over 10 points, signaling momentum in battleground areas. Historical midterm trends show the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses, bolstering expectations for Democratic gains despite Republican redistricting edges and vulnerable Senate seats like Michigan and Georgia. Primaries starting soon and economic updates remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Объем
$42,161Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 75.5% implied probability for Democrats achieving a blue wave—securing 218 or more House seats and 49 or more Senate seats—in the November 2026 midterms, driven by persistent leads in generic ballot polling averages of 4-6 points and President Trump's approval rating sinking to record lows around 38% amid high inflation, gas prices, and escalation in the Iran conflict. Recent special elections in Georgia and Wisconsin saw Democrats overperform 2024 baselines by over 10 points, signaling momentum in battleground areas. Historical midterm trends show the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses, bolstering expectations for Democratic gains despite Republican redistricting edges and vulnerable Senate seats like Michigan and Georgia. Primaries starting soon and economic updates remain key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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