Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon's commanding victory in the March 3 Republican primary, capturing over 80% of the vote against challenger Don Horn, has reinforced trader consensus at 86% implied probability for a GOP win in solidly Republican TX-04 ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's R+16 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Fallon's prior 68% general election margins, and Democratic nominee Jason Pearce's close 52%-48% primary win paired with minimal fundraising—$2,000 cash on hand versus Fallon's $1 million—highlight steep barriers for Democrats in this safe seat spanning Northeast Texas counties. Absent national wave shifts or scandals, historical incumbent advantages in such districts sustain the GOP lead.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоTX-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
TX-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
86%
Демократическая партия
15%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
86%
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon's commanding victory in the March 3 Republican primary, capturing over 80% of the vote against challenger Don Horn, has reinforced trader consensus at 86% implied probability for a GOP win in solidly Republican TX-04 ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's R+16 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Fallon's prior 68% general election margins, and Democratic nominee Jason Pearce's close 52%-48% primary win paired with minimal fundraising—$2,000 cash on hand versus Fallon's $1 million—highlight steep barriers for Democrats in this safe seat spanning Northeast Texas counties. Absent national wave shifts or scandals, historical incumbent advantages in such districts sustain the GOP lead.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon's commanding victory in the March 3 Republican primary, capturing over 80% of the vote against challenger Don Horn, has reinforced trader consensus at 86% implied probability for a GOP win in solidly Republican TX-04 ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's R+16 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Fallon's prior 68% general election margins, and Democratic nominee Jason Pearce's close 52%-48% primary win paired with minimal fundraising—$2,000 cash on hand versus Fallon's $1 million—highlight steep barriers for Democrats in this safe seat spanning Northeast Texas counties. Absent national wave shifts or scandals, historical incumbent advantages in such districts sustain the GOP lead.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon's commanding victory in the March 3 Republican primary, capturing over 80% of the vote against challenger Don Horn, has reinforced trader consensus at 86% implied probability for a GOP win in solidly Republican TX-04 ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's R+16 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Fallon's prior 68% general election margins, and Democratic nominee Jason Pearce's close 52%-48% primary win paired with minimal fundraising—$2,000 cash on hand versus Fallon's $1 million—highlight steep barriers for Democrats in this safe seat spanning Northeast Texas counties. Absent national wave shifts or scandals, historical incumbent advantages in such districts sustain the GOP lead.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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