In Harris-won states holding both Senate and gubernatorial contests in 2026, structural partisan leans limit Republican opportunities, with trader consensus centering on two wins as the most probable outcome. Eight such states feature races, including Republican-held governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont that remain competitive despite the 2024 presidential results, alongside Senate seats in states like Maine. Recent primary outcomes and early general-election positioning have reinforced Democratic advantages in deeper-blue jurisdictions, while historical midterm patterns and low crossover potential in these electorates keep higher totals like four or more at single-digit implied probabilities. Scheduled developments through November, including candidate filings and polling shifts in battleground subsets, continue to anchor the distribution around two to three Republican victories.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHow many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?
How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?
2 50%
3 29.7%
4 13.2%
1 8.9%
$20,005 Объем
$20,005 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
0
5%
1
9%
2
50%
3
30%
4
13%
5
1%
6+
1%
2 50%
3 29.7%
4 13.2%
1 8.9%
$20,005 Объем
$20,005 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
0
$3,122 Объем
5%
1
$1,953 Объем
9%
2
$7,514 Объем
50%
3
$3,355 Объем
30%
4
$1,506 Объем
13%
5
$1,490 Объем
1%
6+
$1,066 Объем
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
In Harris-won states holding both Senate and gubernatorial contests in 2026, structural partisan leans limit Republican opportunities, with trader consensus centering on two wins as the most probable outcome. Eight such states feature races, including Republican-held governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont that remain competitive despite the 2024 presidential results, alongside Senate seats in states like Maine. Recent primary outcomes and early general-election positioning have reinforced Democratic advantages in deeper-blue jurisdictions, while historical midterm patterns and low crossover potential in these electorates keep higher totals like four or more at single-digit implied probabilities. Scheduled developments through November, including candidate filings and polling shifts in battleground subsets, continue to anchor the distribution around two to three Republican victories.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Объем
$20,005Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
In Harris-won states holding both Senate and gubernatorial contests in 2026, structural partisan leans limit Republican opportunities, with trader consensus centering on two wins as the most probable outcome. Eight such states feature races, including Republican-held governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont that remain competitive despite the 2024 presidential results, alongside Senate seats in states like Maine. Recent primary outcomes and early general-election positioning have reinforced Democratic advantages in deeper-blue jurisdictions, while historical midterm patterns and low crossover potential in these electorates keep higher totals like four or more at single-digit implied probabilities. Scheduled developments through November, including candidate filings and polling shifts in battleground subsets, continue to anchor the distribution around two to three Republican victories.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$20,005Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In Harris-won states holding both Senate and gubernatorial contests in 2026, structural partisan leans limit Republican opportunities, with trader consensus centering on two wins as the most probable outcome. Eight such states feature races, including Republican-held governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont that remain competitive despite the 2024 presidential results, alongside Senate seats in states like Maine. Recent primary outcomes and early general-election positioning have reinforced Democratic advantages in deeper-blue jurisdictions, while historical midterm patterns and low crossover potential in these electorates keep higher totals like four or more at single-digit implied probabilities. Scheduled developments through November, including candidate filings and polling shifts in battleground subsets, continue to anchor the distribution around two to three Republican victories.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли у Республиканской партии 47 или меньше мест в Сенате после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
24%
Да
Получат ли республиканцы ≤46 мест в Сенате и ≤192 места в Палате представителей после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
16%
Да
Будет ли у Республиканской партии ровно 22 или 23 губернаторских поста после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
30%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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