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Политика·Израиль

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

Market icon
Политика·Израиль

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

июн. 30

дек. 31

июн. 30

дек. 31

16% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
16% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85% for a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, reflecting scant diplomatic progress amid regional volatility. Kazakhstan's accession in November 2025 marked the latest expansion, with Somaliland also aligning earlier that year, but no subsequent formal normalizations have occurred. Recent US advocacy, including President Trump's March 28 call for Saudi Arabia to join against the backdrop of Iran tensions, and bipartisan Senate bills like the Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act introduced last week, signal interest without concrete negotiations or timelines. Saudi Arabia and Syria show exploratory signals, yet complex hurdles—territorial disputes, domestic politics, and escalation risks—leave traders skeptical of resolution in the tight three-month window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.

For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$488
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85% for a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, reflecting scant diplomatic progress amid regional volatility. Kazakhstan's accession in November 2025 marked the latest expansion, with Somaliland also aligning earlier that year, but no subsequent formal normalizations have occurred. Recent US advocacy, including President Trump's March 28 call for Saudi Arabia to join against the backdrop of Iran tensions, and bipartisan Senate bills like the Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act introduced last week, signal interest without concrete negotiations or timelines. Saudi Arabia and Syria show exploratory signals, yet complex hurdles—territorial disputes, domestic politics, and escalation risks—leave traders skeptical of resolution in the tight three-month window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.

For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$488
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

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«Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 16% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 16¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 16%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Apr 1, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

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Текущая вероятность для «Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?» составляет 16% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 16%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

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