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Будет ли 2025 год вторым по жаре годом в истории наблюдений?

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Будет ли 2025 год вторым по жаре годом в истории наблюдений?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Да

>99% chance
Polymarket

$397,265 Объем

Да

>99% chance
Polymarket

$397,265 Объем

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$397,265
Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2025
Открытие рынка
Aug 15, 2025, 2:52 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: Да

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Да

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$397,265
Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2025
Открытие рынка
Aug 15, 2025, 2:52 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: Да

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Да

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Будет ли 2025 год вторым по жаре годом в истории наблюдений?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Будет ли 2025 год вторым по жаре годом в истории наблюдений?" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Будет ли 2025 год вторым по жаре годом в истории наблюдений?" has generated $397.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Будет ли 2025 год вторым по жаре годом в истории наблюдений?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Будет ли 2025 год вторым по жаре годом в истории наблюдений?" is "Будет ли 2025 год вторым по жаре годом в истории наблюдений?" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Будет ли 2025 год вторым по жаре годом в истории наблюдений?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.