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Политика·Трамп

Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?

Market icon
Политика·Трамп

Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?

Кевин Уорш 96.4%

Джуди Шелтон 1.4%

Мишель Боумен <1%

Стивен Миран <1%

Polymarket

$20,334,724 Объем

Кевин Уорш 96.4%

Джуди Шелтон 1.4%

Мишель Боумен <1%

Стивен Миран <1%

Polymarket

$20,334,724 Объем

Кевин Уорш

$2,796,860 Объем

96%

Джуди Шелтон

$9,250,410 Объем

1%

Кевин Хассетт

$829,206 Объем

<1%

Кристофер Уоллер

$755,753 Объем

<1%

Джером Пауэлл

$969,806 Объем

<1%

Стивен Миран

$788,829 Объем

<1%

Скотт Бессент

$2,149,134 Объем

<1%

Рик Рейдер

$672,645 Объем

<1%

Мишель Боумен

$2,122,946 Объем

1%

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin Warsh's 96.5% implied probability as the next confirmed Fed Chair stems from his status as President Trump's official nominee, formally transmitted to the Senate on March 4 ahead of Jerome Powell's May 15 term expiration, coupled with the Senate Banking Committee's plan for a confirmation hearing the week of April 13. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, enjoys broad Republican support in the GOP-controlled Senate, reflecting trader consensus on his hawkish credentials and market experience driving the commanding odds. Challenges could arise from Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold over a DOJ probe into Powell's Fed building renovations—now facing appeal after a judge's April 3 ruling—or Democratic opposition led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, though historical patterns favor nominees without major scandals.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$20,334,724
Дата окончания
31 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin Warsh's 96.5% implied probability as the next confirmed Fed Chair stems from his status as President Trump's official nominee, formally transmitted to the Senate on March 4 ahead of Jerome Powell's May 15 term expiration, coupled with the Senate Banking Committee's plan for a confirmation hearing the week of April 13. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, enjoys broad Republican support in the GOP-controlled Senate, reflecting trader consensus on his hawkish credentials and market experience driving the commanding odds. Challenges could arise from Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing hold over a DOJ probe into Powell's Fed building renovations—now facing appeal after a judge's April 3 ruling—or Democratic opposition led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, though historical patterns favor nominees without major scandals.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$20,334,724
Дата окончания
31 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 9 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Кевин Уорш» с 96%, за ним следует «Джуди Шелтон» с 1%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 96¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $20.3 million с момента запуска рынка Mar 4, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?», просмотри 9 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» — «Кевин Уорш» с 96%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Джуди Шелтон» с 1%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Кто будет утвержден в качестве председателя ФРС?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.