Trader consensus on the Polymarket for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 reflects high uncertainty, with no nation above 20% implied probability amid absence of confirmed diplomatic commitments or official invitations. Recent developments include vague mentions in international forums of a potential Saudi- or UN-backed peace initiative focused on Middle East stability, but primary sources like foreign ministry statements show no formal applications or endorsements. Speculation centers on regional players like UAE or Jordan due to prior peace mediation roles, yet base rates from similar bodies like the Quartet on the Middle East indicate slow membership growth. Traders eye upcoming UN General Assembly sessions and bilateral summits before the deadline as key catalysts that could shift odds, underscoring the market's skin-in-the-game pricing of diplomatic inertia.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$1,741,103 Объем
Индия
5%
Россия
3%
Бразилия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Германия
2%
Бельгия
1%
Италия
1%
Норвегия
1%
Швеция
1%
Франция
1%
Испания
1%
Дания
1%
Финляндия
1%
Великобритания
1%
Швейцария
1%
Нидерланды
1%
Китай
1%
$1,741,103 Объем
Индия
5%
Россия
3%
Бразилия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Германия
2%
Бельгия
1%
Италия
1%
Норвегия
1%
Швеция
1%
Франция
1%
Испания
1%
Дания
1%
Финляндия
1%
Великобритания
1%
Швейцария
1%
Нидерланды
1%
Китай
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the Polymarket for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 reflects high uncertainty, with no nation above 20% implied probability amid absence of confirmed diplomatic commitments or official invitations. Recent developments include vague mentions in international forums of a potential Saudi- or UN-backed peace initiative focused on Middle East stability, but primary sources like foreign ministry statements show no formal applications or endorsements. Speculation centers on regional players like UAE or Jordan due to prior peace mediation roles, yet base rates from similar bodies like the Quartet on the Middle East indicate slow membership growth. Traders eye upcoming UN General Assembly sessions and bilateral summits before the deadline as key catalysts that could shift odds, underscoring the market's skin-in-the-game pricing of diplomatic inertia.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы