Trader consensus on Polymarket for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 remains cautious, with low probabilities assigned to major powers amid stalled diplomatic talks. No official announcements have confirmed new memberships since the board's inception, as negotiations hinge on consensus among founding members focused on global conflict mediation. Recent UN General Assembly discussions highlighted interest from neutral states like Switzerland and Indonesia, but veto risks from security council permanents cap expectations. Upcoming bilateral summits in late March could catalyze breakthroughs, though historical base rates for such multilateral boards show only 20% success in rapid expansions. Traders weigh these uncertainties against the deadline's proximity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$1,744,473 Объем
Индия
4%
Россия
2%
Бразилия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Великобритания
2%
Германия
2%
Италия
2%
Бельгия
1%
Норвегия
1%
Швеция
1%
Франция
1%
Финляндия
1%
Испания
1%
Дания
1%
Нидерланды
1%
Швейцария
1%
Китай
1%
$1,744,473 Объем
Индия
4%
Россия
2%
Бразилия
2%
Украина
2%
Палестина
2%
Великобритания
2%
Германия
2%
Италия
2%
Бельгия
1%
Норвегия
1%
Швеция
1%
Франция
1%
Финляндия
1%
Испания
1%
Дания
1%
Нидерланды
1%
Швейцария
1%
Китай
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 20, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 remains cautious, with low probabilities assigned to major powers amid stalled diplomatic talks. No official announcements have confirmed new memberships since the board's inception, as negotiations hinge on consensus among founding members focused on global conflict mediation. Recent UN General Assembly discussions highlighted interest from neutral states like Switzerland and Indonesia, but veto risks from security council permanents cap expectations. Upcoming bilateral summits in late March could catalyze breakthroughs, though historical base rates for such multilateral boards show only 20% success in rapid expansions. Traders weigh these uncertainties against the deadline's proximity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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