Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet has captured the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its June 20 release, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding, vision, and agentic tasks with an Elo score above 1280, driving trader consensus toward Anthropic as the frontrunner for holding the #1 AI model through June 30. This edge stems from its rapid benchmark dominance and lower hallucination rates, amid a competitive landscape where Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro lags slightly and Meta's Llama 3 405B trails in overall rankings. No major model launches from rivals are confirmed before resolution, though rumors of OpenAI updates or xAI's Grok-2 could spark shifts; traders eye last-minute announcements as key catalysts in this skin-in-the-game wisdom-of-crowds assessment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакие компании будут иметь модель искусственного интеллекта №1 к 30 июня?
Какие компании будут иметь модель искусственного интеллекта №1 к 30 июня?
$1,165,382 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
OpenAI
29%
xAI
16%
Alibaba
8%
DeepSeek
7%
Meta
6%
Z.ai
5%
Baidu
4%
Mistral
4%
Nvidia
3%
Meituan
3%
$1,165,382 Объем
OpenAI
$337,567 Объем
29%
xAI
$537,589 Объем
16%
Alibaba
$4,633 Объем
8%
DeepSeek
$23,021 Объем
7%
Meta
$0 Объем
6%
Z.ai
$0 Объем
5%
Baidu
$1,906 Объем
4%
Mistral
$0 Объем
4%
Nvidia
$0 Объем
3%
Meituan
$2,695 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet has captured the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its June 20 release, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding, vision, and agentic tasks with an Elo score above 1280, driving trader consensus toward Anthropic as the frontrunner for holding the #1 AI model through June 30. This edge stems from its rapid benchmark dominance and lower hallucination rates, amid a competitive landscape where Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro lags slightly and Meta's Llama 3 405B trails in overall rankings. No major model launches from rivals are confirmed before resolution, though rumors of OpenAI updates or xAI's Grok-2 could spark shifts; traders eye last-minute announcements as key catalysts in this skin-in-the-game wisdom-of-crowds assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Объем
$1,165,382Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet has captured the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its June 20 release, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding, vision, and agentic tasks with an Elo score above 1280, driving trader consensus toward Anthropic as the frontrunner for holding the #1 AI model through June 30. This edge stems from its rapid benchmark dominance and lower hallucination rates, amid a competitive landscape where Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro lags slightly and Meta's Llama 3 405B trails in overall rankings. No major model launches from rivals are confirmed before resolution, though rumors of OpenAI updates or xAI's Grok-2 could spark shifts; traders eye last-minute announcements as key catalysts in this skin-in-the-game wisdom-of-crowds assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Объем
$1,165,382Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet has captured the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its June 20 release, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding, vision, and agentic tasks with an Elo score above 1280, driving trader consensus toward Anthropic as the frontrunner for holding the #1 AI model through June 30. This edge stems from its rapid benchmark dominance and lower hallucination rates, amid a competitive landscape where Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro lags slightly and Meta's Llama 3 405B trails in overall rankings. No major model launches from rivals are confirmed before resolution, though rumors of OpenAI updates or xAI's Grok-2 could spark shifts; traders eye last-minute announcements as key catalysts in this skin-in-the-game wisdom-of-crowds assessment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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