Absence of any official U.S. Department of Justice announcements or indictments against former Cuban President Raul Castro drives the 76% implied probability on "No," reflecting trader consensus that federal charges remain unlikely. No primary sources indicate ongoing investigations or legal actions targeting the 93-year-old ex-leader, who retired in 2021 and resides in non-extradition Cuba. Recent U.S.-Cuba developments focus on tightened sanctions, migration pacts, and economic pressures amid Havana's protests, but lack momentum for personal prosecutions akin to past espionage cases against lower officials. Historical U.S. policy prioritizes regime sanctions over charging aging figureheads, with no catalysts like whistleblowers or diplomatic shifts altering this dynamic.